AI will add $19.9 trillion to global economy by 2030, IDC predicts
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The rise of artificial intelligence will boost the global economy a cumulative $19.9 trillion by 2030, according to a new IDC study released Tuesday.
Why it matters: The study takes a broad look at AI's impact, including the revenue of AI companies, AI's impacts on consumer spending and the massive spending on infrastructure needed to power AI systems.
By the numbers: IDC, the market-forecasting giant, projects that AI — including but not limited to generative AI — will boost the global economy by $4.9 trillion in 2030, up from just below $1.2 trillion this year.
- If so, that means AI-related activity could account for 3.5% of global GDP, based on IMF estimates for the global economy.
How it works: IDC is calculating more than just how much revenue is generated by AI companies themselves. In addition to direct spending, IDC's figure includes two other categories: indirect spending and induced spending.
- Direct spending includes not only the revenue that AI companies take in but also what they spend on chips and hardware.
- Indirect spending includes construction needed to to create data centers, the power needed to run those centers and related hiring, as well as the gains from efficiencies and added revenue by adopting AI.
- Induced spending accounts for the extra economic activity from those employed by the AI industry or those who benefit from advances in AI.
- In total, IDC estimates that with indirect and induced spending, every new dollar spent on business-related AI solutions and services in 2030 will generate $4.60 into the global economy.
What they're saying: IDC group VP Rick Villars told Axios that AI is already boosting the economy.
- "It is growing, but it's already significant," Villars said.
Yes, but: This model doesn't account for broader changes in jobs or wages from the adoption of AI. Many expect that AI could put pressure on wages and lead to some amount of job loss.
- IDC's own "Future of Work Employees Survey" found 48% of workers expect some of their work to be automated over the next two years, with another 15% expecting most of their tasks to be automated. Only 3% of those surveyed expect AI to fully automate their job over that time frame.
- "That's obviously an important conversation to have," Villars said.
