Polls tighten as Trump leans into threats

We didn't need more proof of the high stakes surrounding Tuesday's debate between Harris and Trump, but this weekend provided it anyway.

• 🏀 Harris' convention bounce has eased and Trump — despite a series of erratic and incendiary remarks and posts on social media — is maintaining steady support.
• The two are in a dead heat, according to a New York Times/Siena poll out today that indicates many voters (28%) want to know more about Harris' policy positions.

📈 The poll also found that while Harris leads Trump among traditional Democratic blocs such as Black and Hispanic voters, she's short of hitting the numbers that Democrats traditionally need to win.

• The poll showed Harris getting 55% of the Hispanic vote and 78% of Blacks' support in a head-to-head matchup with Trump.
• 🤔 As Axios' Russell Contreras has reported, when Democratic presidential candidates get less than about 64% of the Latino vote, they typically lose.
• The poll also suggests Harris has ground to make up to hit Democrats' traditional numbers among Black voters: More than 90% backed Biden in 2020.

The NYT/Siena poll showed Trump up 48-47 among likely voters, well within the margin of error. Harris has had a slight edge in other recent polls.

• 🇺🇸 But remember: The presidential race isn't a national election. It's a series of state elections that feed into a national count of votes in the Electoral College. Get 270 electoral votes, you win.

• That's why the polls in politically divided swing states are watched closely.
• NYT/Siena showed Harris with razor-thin leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, the "Blue Wall" swing states crucial to her path to victory.

😡 Trump, meanwhile, ramped up his vows to get revenge on his political enemies in a post on his Truth Social platform late Saturday.

• He's proposing two of the largest-ever federal arrests of people living in America, including U.S. citizens, if he's re-elected.