End of the Google era

• Fighting an antitrust suit always takes money and time — but even more important, it's distracting for both executives and employees.
• Losing an antitrust trial brings the likelihood of new constraints on a company's freedom of action, with the prospect of court-imposed rules and the addition of lawyers into the product development mix.

We've been here before.

• The Justice Department's landmark 1998 Microsoft antitrust suit distracted and slowed the company from dominating the rapidly growing internet the way it had led the personal computing era. Google was founded the same year.
• This time around, Google is the industry leader, AI is the new platform, and upstarts like OpenAI are vying to take the initiative.

Why it matters: Progress in tech has always depended on this cycle of upstarts challenging incumbents and eventually becoming the new dominant force.

• But for the past decade this process has felt frozen, with no hope of newcomers challenging Big Tech's five giants — Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta.

Yes, but: AI runs on data, and data is what Google has spent the last quarter-century accumulating — giving the company enormous, persistent power that it is not shy of wielding.

• Judge Amit Mehta's decision centers on Google's use of its clout in the search market to elbow competitors aside. That means the penalties he imposes will likely center on that part of its business.
• Still, a creative set of judicial remedies could also limit Google's ability to capitalize on its search users' data — or even find ways to require the company to open its data trove to rivals.

What's next: Google has said it will appeal the ruling, and it's fairly common for complex antitrust decisions like this one to be overturned — as much of the judgment against Microsoft was 20 years ago.

• Meanwhile, in a second phase of the trial, the judge will decide what kind of remedy to impose on Google — which could range from limited rules governing its conduct to a broad effort to break up the company.
• A second major antitrust suit against Google — covering its massive ad-tech business — goes to trial this fall.

The bottom line: Lawsuits over tech monopolies more often end in technicalities than in drama. But they can also push the industry to evolve in new ways.

• Monday's decision is well-positioned to add legal force and policy depth to the disruptive currents AI has already unleashed. That might be enough to crack open the long locked-up search market.