Harris' gamble: Win Pennsylvania without Shapiro
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Gov. Tim Walz, Vice President Kamala Harris' pick to be her running mate. Photo: Stephen Maturen/Getty Images
Democrats from across the party's political spectrum are thrilled with Vice President Kamala Harris' choice for running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.
- Republicans are thrilled she didn't choose the finalist they feared most: Pennsylvania's popular governor, Josh Shapiro.
Why it matters: Until Harris' one-on-one interviews this weekend, Shapiro was widely considered to be the leading VP contender because of his unique crossover appeal in Pennsylvania, the most important swing state on the map.
- Without Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes, Harris could need a clean sweep of swing states Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia to win the election.
- In bypassing Shapiro, Harris is signaling that she and her team believe they can win Pennsylvania without him on the ticket — and that party unity, governing experience and personal rapport ultimately were her priorities over raw political math.
Zoom in: Walz, a two-term Midwestern governor, former congressman, high school teacher, football coach and Army veteran, has one of the most distinctive biographies of any Democrat Harris considered.
- A person close to the process told Axios that Harris was drawn to Walz's governing record in Minnesota, citing policy victories for the middle class that the ticket could campaign on nationally.
- Walz's accomplishments include implementing a child tax credit, a ban on junk fees, paid family leave, gun safety measures and codifying abortion rights.
- "One of the things that stood out to me about Tim is how his convictions on fighting for middle-class families run deep," Harris wrote in an Instagram post announcing her pick.
Between the lines: For Democrats, Walz's ability to crystalize the threat posed by pro-Trump Republicans in one viral word — "weird" — is a huge reason he skyrocketed to the top of Harris' VP shortlist in just two weeks.
The other side: Republicans have been quick to paint Walz as a "radical leftist" for his progressive record — and have accused Harris of pandering to pro-Palestinian activists who campaigned against Shapiro.
- "It's hard to imagine that Josh's strong stand on Israel [and] his Jewish background, didn't somehow factor into the decision," Pennsylvania GOP Senate nominee Dave McCormick said at a campaign stop.
- Several GOP strategists told Axios they believed Shapiro would have been far more damaging to their chances in November, with one describing the Walz pick as the "first break we've caught since the Biden switcheroo."
- One topic set to feature heavily in GOP attacks: Walz's handling of the riots in Minneapolis in 2020 after the police murder of George Floyd.
The big picture: Senior Democratic strategists who spoke to Axios before the VP selection overwhelmingly favored Shapiro. But they're not worried about Walz costing the party in Pennsylvania.
- Shapiro said in a statement that he will campaign aggressively for Harris and Walz in his home state, including at a kickoff rally today in Philadelphia.
- Democrats also said they aren't concerned about Republicans labeling Walz as "radical," arguing that he's exceptionally "normal" for a politician and is a talented communicator.
- Donald Trump's campaign — which claimed Walz would "unleash HELL ON EARTH" in a fundraising email Tuesday — could encounter difficulty landing its attacks against the folksy, animal-loving governor.
The bottom line: Trump allies were extremely concerned about Shapiro, fearing the governor's popularity with swing voters could push Pennsylvania out of reach.
- But given some progressives' vocal opposition to Shapiro and the risk of reigniting party divisions, Harris opted for a more classic VP formula: "Do no harm."
Axios' Alex Thompson contributed reporting.
