Race to define Harris starts with Biden's baggage
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images
Overnight, the scope and scale of Vice President Kamala Harris' influence in the Biden administration has become one of the most important and disputed questions of the 2024 campaign.
Why it matters: In the next three months, hundreds of millions of dollars will be spent defining a role Harris has held for nearly four years. Whether she inherits President Biden's political baggage could determine who gets sent packing in November.
The big picture: Harris' unorthodox campaign pitch — a quasi-incumbent pledging to turn the page to a new generation of leadership — presents messaging challenges on both sides.
- The Harris campaign is walking a particularly careful tightrope, aiming to amplify the VP's role in Biden's biggest accomplishments while keeping his vulnerabilities at arm's length.
- The Trump campaign is publicly attacking Harris as the "co-pilot" to Biden's "failed" presidency — but privately acknowledging that her candidacy has scrambled the race.
Zoom in: There's little doubt that the 59-year-old Harris has vanquished the Democratic Party's biggest political headache — Biden's age and acuity.
- "The bad news is that Kamala Harris does not have the same baggage as Joe Biden," Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), Donald Trump's running mate, said on a private call with donors last weekend.
- "Kamala is a lot younger. And Kamala Harris is obviously not struggling in the same ways that Joe Biden did," Vance acknowledged, calling Biden's withdrawal from the race a "political sucker punch."
Yes, but: Republicans still see opportunities to go on offense over Biden's age.
- "Kamala was in on it. She covered up Joe's obvious mental decline," the super PAC MAGA Inc. alleged in a $3.5 million swing-state ad last week, according to AdImpact.
- "Kamala knew Joe couldn't do the job. So she did it," the ad continues, casting Harris as the driving force behind Biden's border policies and inflation.
Zoom out: The Trump campaign sees the border as baggage that Harris can't escape, and is pouring $12.2 million into TV and digital ads over the next two weeks hammering her on illegal immigration.
- On the economy, however, there are early indications that Harris won't be saddled with the same dismal polling that frustrated Biden for much of his presidency.
- A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll of voters in seven swing states found Trump leading Harris by five points on inflation, down from a 13-point edge over Biden early this month.
- "The upside for Harris is huge: voters do not hold her accountable for Biden's perceived failures on inflation, and she can run hard on economic messaging," Democratic pollster Evan Roth Smith told Semafor.
Between the lines: On issues particularly salient to young voters, Harris has drawn some distance — at least rhetorically — from Biden.
- On the war in Gaza, for example, Harris vowed to "not be silent" about Palestinian suffering after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — angering Israeli officials.
- Harris recently created an account on TikTok and has become a viral sensation among Gen Z users, despite Biden signing a law this year that could lead to a nationwide ban of the Chinese-owned app.
What to watch: Armed with a massive war chest, the Harris campaign is determined to define the vice president on her own terms, beginning with a $50 million ad buy ahead of the Democratic National Convention.
- The campaign unveiled a digital ad Tuesday tackling Harris' biggest vulnerability head on by highlighting Trump's sabotage of the Senate's bipartisan border deal earlier this year.
- "After killing the toughest border deal in decades, Donald Trump is running on his trademark lies because his own record and 'plans' are extreme and unpopular," Harris spokesperson Ammar Moussa said in a statement.
