How unionized voters could decide the election
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Over the past two national election cycles, Democrats regained some edge with union voters, finds an analysis from the progressive Center for American Progress Action Fund shared exclusively with Axios.
Why it matters: With the union vote hotly contested expect to see more explicitly pro-worker policy ideas — or at least sloganeering — coming from both sides of the aisle.
- That's part of the impetus behind the Biden administration's pro-labor rhetoric and policy and is also why Teamsters president Sean O'Brien spoke to the Republican National Convention — an unprecedented move.
- Last week, Vice President and presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, reaffirmed her support for labor law reform in front of a crowd of unionized teachers.
- Organized labor is leading a quiet push for Harris to consider Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) as her running mate, Axios scooped Monday night.
The big picture: Union members make up a small share of the electorate, but Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania have higher union densities than the country overall.
- More than 12% of workers in each state belong to a union, the American Progress analysis points out, compared to 10% nationwide
- They've been a key voting block for the party, not just because they tend to prefer Democrats but because union members are more likely to vote than nonunion members, says David Madland, who co-authored the study.
Catch up fast: Back in the day, Democrats took the union vote for granted. In 2012, 66% of union voters went for Barack Obama, per American Progress — a number in line with historic voting patterns. Only 53% of nonunion workers voted Democratic.
- The next presidential election changed the game. Only 53% of union members went for Hillary Clinton, according to the analysis, which looked at voting data for employed Americans compiled by the Cooperative Election Study.
- Biden has made explicit overtures to get union voters back.
What they found: In 2020, 60% of union voters went for Biden — better than those Clinton lows but still 6 points less than voted for Obama.
- And in the 2022 midterm election, 63% of union members voted for a Democratic senator or representative, CAP finds.
Between the lines: A big question heading into November is whether the Biden administration's pro-union moves — like the president walking the UAW picket line, and putting union protections into key legislation — will make a difference on Election Day.
- So far, many big unions have thrown their support behind Harris' campaign.
The bottom line: Even as candidates talk a big pro-worker game, pro-labor momentum has been slowed by weak labor laws in the U.S. and a Supreme Court that tends to rule in businesses' favor.
