Exclusive poll: Harris opens up early edge with young voters
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Vice President Kamala Harris is significantly more popular among America’s youngest voters than President Biden, a new Axios/Generation Lab poll shows.
Why it matters: Former President Trump appeared to be chipping away at Democrats' decades-long hold on the youth vote. But Harris could be extending the gap once again.
By the numbers: The survey — fielded entirely after Biden stepped aside on Sunday — asked respondents which candidate they'd support in Biden-Trump and Harris-Trump matchups.
- In a Biden-Trump race, the split among 18- to 34-year-olds was 53% for Biden and 47% for Trump, giving Biden a 6-point lead.
- But in a Harris-Trump contest, the same respondents split 60% for Harris and 40% for Trump — a 20-point lead for Harris.
45% of young people say they have an extremely or somewhat favorable opinion of Harris.
- 33% say the same for Biden, along with 34% for Trump.
Zoom in: Gen Z and millennial voters were key to Biden's 2020 victory, turning out in huge numbers and favoring him by 20 points in 2020, per a Pew Research Center analysis.
- Young voters will be a key component of Harris' path to the presidency as well.
The bottom line: It’s not just the memes. "[T]his data actually does suggest that Harris could run up the score with young voters in a major way," says Cyrus Beschloss, CEO of Generation Lab.
Methodology: This poll was conducted July 22-24, 2024 from a representative sample of 804 18 to 34-year-olds nationwide. The margin of error is ± 3.5 percentage points.
