Three groups to watch in next round of Trump-Harris polling
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Supporters hold up "Kamala" signs during a rally at West Allis Central High School near Milwaukee on Tuesday. Photo: Kayla Wolf/AP
Poll watchers are focusing on three key groups as they scramble to figure out how Vice President Kamala Harris is shaking up the race: young voters, Hispanics and Black men.
Why it matters: All groups matter in presidential politics, but some matter more than others.
- After an insane few weeks in politics, the pros will wait for polls with large cross-sections of specific groups before moving advertising dollars around.
Driving the news: Republicans are bracing for a little Harris bump, or a "Honeymoon," as former President Trump's pollster Tony Fabrizio wrote Tuesday.
- His prediction proved prescient: Reuters/Ipsos gave Harris a 2-point lead: 44%–42%.
- Yahoo showed the head-to-head race tied: 46%–46%.
- Meanwhile, NPR/Marist had Trump up by 1 point: 46% to 45%.
What we're watching: Pre-Biden exit, both Democrats and Republicans had certain historically unusually — and slightly puzzling — advantages.
- Biden was actually up among the crucial 60-and-up crowd, reversing a trend of the last five cycles. They matter for one simple reason: They vote.
- Privately, some Biden officials weren't convinced that older voters would stick with the younger Harris. They are about to find out.
Between the lines: Biden's theory of the case had been that young voters, who were flirting with Trump, would come home on Election Day.
- In 2020, Biden won voters under the age of 30 by 24 points, according to Pew Research's comprehensive analysis of the election.
- But Harvard's comprehensive young voter survey (released in April) had Biden up a mere 8 points. A New York Times/Siena College survey earlier this month found Trump was down by 3 points among likely voters aged 18–29.
- Those numbers are potentially deeply concerning for Democrats. But both parties think the youth vote is best described as fickle at this point in the race.
The other side: Republicans are wondering if Trump's apparent inroads with Black and Hispanic voters — especially males — will endure in a face-to-face match-up with Harris.
- Four years ago, Biden won Hispanic males by 17 points and Hispanic women by 24 points in 2020, according to Pew.
- But Trump was actually leading Biden 46-40 among Hispanics in a recent New York Times/Sienna survey. That jibes with other surveys, including an April Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll.
- And 18% of Black voters say they are leaning toward Trump, according to Pew. That's 10 points higher than his 2020 showing of 8%.
