What the polls say about a Trump-Harris matchup
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Vice President Kamala Harris on July 17 in Kalamazoo, Mich. Photo: Chris duMond/Getty Images
Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly trails former President Trump in most recent national polls — similar numbers to President Biden, whom she is on the inside track to replace as Democratic nominee.
The big picture: Harris hasn't had a chance to start campaigning, and some Democrats are confident the polls will improve once she's head-to-head against Trump. For now, the polling suggests she's launching her campaign right around where Biden left off.
By the numbers: Trump leads Harris by 1.5 percentage points in an average of 11 national polls conducted since Biden's debate disaster on June 27, per the Washington Post. The same average showed Biden trailing Trump by 1.9 percentage points.
- Before the June presidential debate, multiple polls showed Biden outperforming Harris against Trump — something Biden backers raised repeatedly to argue he should remain on the ballot.
- However, post-debate polls tend to show Harris faring a bit better than Biden.
Zoom in: A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last week showed Harris tied with Trump and Biden trailing by 2 points among registered voters.
- Meanwhile, a CBS/YouGov poll also conducted last week showed Harris trailing by 3 points and Biden by 5 with likely voters.
Zoom out: Harris had the worst approval rating ever recorded for a VP in a June poll from NBC, with 32% approval and 49% disapproval.
- Harris will certainly be able to mount a more vigorous campaign than Biden, and the historic nature of her candidacy may energize the grassroots more than Biden's sputtering re-election bid.
- She'll now have a chance to reintroduce herself to voters and define her vision for the country. But she'll also become the primary target of Republican attacks on issues like immigration.
- One key question is whether she can win over groups drifting away from Biden — such as young voters and Black voters — without losing demographics like older white voters with whom Biden remained relatively popular, the Economist notes.
Between the lines: Biden's weakness wasn't his slight deficit in the national polls, but his narrow path to an electoral college majority.
- Polling averages showed Trump leading Biden across the board in several swing states, with some potentially slipping out of reach. To stay in the White House, Biden likely needed a clean sweep of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
What to watch: There's not much swing state polling for a Harris-Trump matchup yet.
- The national Trump-Harris polls to date were conducted before Biden dropped out of the race, and therefore purely hypothetical. Some respondents may view things differently with Biden officially out and Harris as the front-runner for the nomination.
- When fresh data arrives, we may have a clearer sense of whether Harris has a better shot at victory.
Go deeper: Democratic governors fall in line behind Harris
Editor's note: This story has been corrected to reflect that in an average of 11 national polls, Trump led Harris by 1.5 percentage points and Biden by 1.9 percentage points (not 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively).
