Five reasons Kamala Harris is probably in after Biden dropped out
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Biden and Harris during July 4 celebrations at the White House. Photo: Samuel Corum/Getty Images
President Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris after dropping out of the 2024 race on Sunday, solidifying her status as the likely Democratic nominee.
The big picture: There's a movement underway among some Democratic officials and operatives to bypass Vice President Harris as Biden's successor — or at least make the nomination a contest rather than a coronation.
- They're floating names like Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, or California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Reality check: Even beyond Biden's powerful endorsement, there are at least five reasons the mission to bypass Harris is unlikely to succeed.
1. Money: The Biden campaign's war chest — $91 million as of the last filing in June — could easily be transferred to Harris but not to any other candidate.
- The roughly $150 million held by other Biden-aligned entities could hypothetically move to another Democrat, and there may be other ways to repurpose that $91 million. But it's all much simpler if Harris is nominated.
2. History: As a Black and Asian American woman, Harris is already a history-making VP. She could be the first woman president.
- She's also already first in the line of succession, meaning a party that relies on Black women as the core of its support would have to pass over a Black woman to nominate someone else.
- Party elders including former DNC Chair Donna Brazile have warned that would cause an "uproar." Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), told Axios' Hans Nichols it could "be the kiss of death for the party."
3. Expected endorsements: Party heavyweights including Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) put down markers by saying they would back Harris if Biden dropped.
- The Obamas and Clintons will likely throw their weight behind Harris too after Biden's endorsement, as Axios' Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei reported.
4. Party unity: Senior Democrats have moved very cautiously in their mission to convince Biden to go. Many aren't ready to plunge into the unknown by letting multiple candidates fight it out one month before the convention.
- A convention fight could get ugly, fast. Some Democrats and liberal columnists have warned it could even cause a lasting schism.
- The DNC is moving to finalize a virtual roll call for the party's nominee by early August — a move originally intended to lock in Biden that could instead end up neutralizing any effort to unseat Harris at the convention in Chicago.
5. Legitimacy: The Biden-Harris ticket won 14 million votes and swept the (largely uncontested) primaries.
- She's the only potential candidate who can claim to have won her party's backing at the ballot box, rather than in a backroom or on a convention floor.
State of play: Harris-skeptic Democrats cite polls that show her hardly faring better than Biden against former President Trump, and there's general skepticism that she's the best candidate to carry the Midwest battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
- Harris' backers argue her recent campaign and media appearances show she'd be a formidable nominee.
The bottom line: Either way, she's got the inside track. Even Democrats concerned about her electability will likely fall in line.
Editor's note: This story was first published on July 18 and updated after Biden dropped out of the race.
