Behind the Curtain: Top Dems now believe Biden will exit

Behind the scenes: The private message, distilled to its bluntest form: The top leaders of his party, his friends and key donors believe he can't win, can't change public perceptions of his age and acuity, and can't deliver congressional majorities.

• The president is being told that if he stays in, former President Trump could win in a landslide and wipe away Biden's legacy and Democrats' hopes in November.

State of play: The pressure to step aside as a candidate has been rising to intolerable levels, especially over the past few days.

• Democrats fully expect polls after the Republican National Convention to show a possible blowout that could bring down Democrats in Congress, too.
• "His choice is to be one of history's heroes, or to be sure of the fact that there'll never be a Biden presidential library," one of the president's close friends told us. "I pray that he does the right thing. He's headed that way."
• Yesterday's AP poll, showing nearly two-thirds of Democrats want Biden to withdraw from the presidential race, ricocheted through the White House and Congress.

A panic pressure campaign is pounding Biden. It has been relentless — and coordinated.

• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) told Biden in Rehoboth Beach, Del., on Saturday — the day of the assassination attempt on Trump — that it would be best if he dropped out, ABC News first reported. Dems on Capitol Hill want him out, and worry they'll lose winnable seats if not.
• Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), a mastermind of the campaign to get Biden out, told him that he could destroy Democrats' chances of taking back the House. We're told she's also worried about donations drying up.
• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) delivered a similar, if more subtle, message to Biden.
• Former President Obama has spoken loudly with his silence — and his former aides trashing Biden in public.
• Bill and Hillary Clinton are doing what Obama's doing. So are their former aides.
• We increasingly hear top Biden aides, including ones who initially urged him to fight on after his disastrous debate on June 27 — 21 days ago — are saying it's now when, not if, Biden announces he's not running.

Between the lines: Democratic insiders were hoping to avoid this. They love and respect Biden and appreciate his historic accomplishments.

• As we told you in a "Behind the Curtain" column 18 days ago, a Democratic official said Biden "will not be dragged off the stage ... The goal is to let him walk off the stage."
• But he wouldn't take the hints, loud as they got. So it's come to this. "He's forcing people who like him and respect him to resort to trying to shame him," a well-known Democrat close to the West Wing told us.

Reality check: Biden can't be forced out. He has the delegates. No one can physically pry them away. He needs to do it by choice and on his terms.

• If Biden wanted to stay in, he'd be impenetrable, thanks to liberal leaders and the Congressional Black Caucus. But his closest friends believe he's fought the good fight and will succumb to reality.

The White House told us about the Schumer and Jeffries conversations: "The president told both leaders he is the nominee of the party, he plans to win, and looks forward to working with both of them to pass his 100 days agenda to help working families."

• "In recent days the President has become more committed to staying in the race," a senior Biden aide said.
• The Biden-Harris campaign tells us: "If the facts matter — and they should — here is one: President Biden is the Democratic nominee and he is going to win this November."
• At a counterprogramming event outside the GOP convention in Milwaukee, deputy campaign manager Quentin Fulks told reporters that Biden "is not wavering on anything. The president has made his decision."

But Biden is doing two new and telling things: listening more and asking about Vice President Harris' prospects against Trump. That's why you see all the leaks about Biden being open-minded. He would hardly talk to naysayers a week ago.

• The most likely scenario is Biden bows out and endorses Harris — but also flicks to letting the delegates sort it out if the party feels otherwise. That would aim to defuse any criticism that the Democratic Party was being undemocratic.
• Harris would be hard to stop — perhaps impossible — if the Obamas and Clintons joined Biden, Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) and the Congressional Black Caucus in backing her. It's not clear the coronation would be so fast and clear, however.

The bottom line: Don't underestimate how badly some Democrats simply want a ticket that can win in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Win those, and Democrats likely win the presidency. Lose them, they're toast.

Editor's note: This column has been updated with additional comments from Biden's team.