Axios Vibes: Latino enthusiasm gap favors Trump
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Latino Republicans say they're much more enthusiastic and likely to vote this year than Latino Democrats, according to a new Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll.
Why it matters: Latino voters overall still align more closely with Democrats on character and policy issues. But if Latino Republicans turn out with more intensity, it could be decisive.
- The findings suggest an opportunity for former President Trump — and newly announced running mate J.D. Vance — to court more support by re-branding the GOP around upward mobility for Latinos.
The big picture: Belief in their candidate and a drive to improve their personal economic status are driving Latino Republicans' enthusiasm gap, the survey finds.
- Inflation, border security and crime are the top three issues facing the country, according to Latino Republicans.
- Latino Democrats say the top issue is inflation followed by climate change and abortion.
What they're saying: "From a branding standpoint, Latinos have a different perception of the GOP than they do of the candidate," said John Gerzema, CEO of The Harris Poll.
- "They think Republicans are business-friendly, out of touch, they trail on caring, they trail on equality. They see Democrats as more in-touch, tolerant, promoting the people, but they haven't delivered.
- "As Trump remakes the party's image in his likeness, Latinos are primed to receive that message because ... it's a more populist message. Their No. 1 issue is their personal economics and he's talking about lowering taxes, improving wages and making housing more affordable, which are really the biggest issues of this cycle.
- "It's people's personal economics. That's what drives the enthusiasm. They believe the former president has the potential to make a difference in their life."
By the numbers: Latino voters are less likely than American voters overall to describe themselves as extremely likely to vote — 68% vs. 79%.
- But there's a 15 percentage point gap among Latino voters, with 86% of Republicans and 71% of Democrats saying they're extremely likely to vote. Independents were least likely, at 54%.
- Similarly, the survey found a 16-point gap, 56% to 40%, between Republican and Democratic Latinos saying they feel enthusiastic about the presidential election.
Latino voters prioritized the economy three times as much as immigration or abortion, the survey found. That's a bigger gap than among non-Latino voters.
- Latinos also placed a higher priority on housing affordability, climate change and taxes than non-Latinos.
On immigration, 62% of Latino voters said they'd favor "more strict" immigration policies in the U.S., while just 23% said they'd favor "more lenient" ones. That compares with 74% of non-Latino voters who favor "more strict" policies.
- At the same time, Latino voters surveyed say on balance they favor more lenient policies toward pathways to citizenship for undocumented people.
Methodology: The findings in this Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll are based on a nationally representative sample of 2,034 U.S. adults conducted online from July 10-12, 2024, in which 587 identified as Latino and 502 as Latino voters.
- The sampling precision of Harris online polls is measured by using a Bayesian credible interval. For this study, the data for the overall population is accurate to within +/- 2.3 percentage points using a 95% confidence level.
- The data for Latino voters is accurate to within +/- 5.5 percentage points.
