Israel toughens Gaza ceasefire demands just as optimism for deal growing

• "Netanyahu gave these tough demands because he is trying to use Hamas' weakness to get as much as he can out of the negotiations. But there is a risk that he will go too far and the negotiations collapse," an Israeli official involved in the talks said.
• The deal could secure the release of 120 hostages and end the nine-month war in Gaza — or at least lead to a 42-day pause in the fighting and the release of some hostages, including American citizens. But finalizing it has proved immensely difficult.
• The long-sought deal would deliver a huge foreign policy win for President Biden, who is fighting to restore trust in his leadership inside the Democratic Party and around the world.

What they're saying: In a briefing with reporters Thursday, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said: "the signs are more positive today than they have been in recent weeks" and the remaining issues "can be resolved and should be resolved."

• "We see progress. We see the possibility of reaching an agreement. I can't guarantee that because there's a lot of details to be hammered through," Sullivan said.
• President Biden expressed confidence a deal would be reached during his press conference on Thursday: "There are still gaps but we are making progress and the trend is positive."
• Hamas accused Netanyahu of "stalling," saying in a statement: "The occupation continues its policy of stalling to buy time to foil this round of negotiations, as it has done in previous rounds."
• There has been progress on one particularly sticky issue — security arrangements on the Egypt-Gaza border, two Israeli officials say. Egypt agreed to the construction of an underground "wall" on its side of the border to block tunnels and the U.S. agreed to fund the project.

Yes, but: Netanyahu hardened his own positions on the border issue in a speech on Thursday, insisting Israel maintain control of the territory immediately along the border — know as the Philadelphi corridor — and the Rafah border crossing.

• He added that any deal must allow Israel to return to fighting in Gaza until all war objectives are achieved.
• Netanyahu added that he won't agree to the return of armed Hamas militants to the northern Gaza Strip and said he will insist that a maximum number of live hostages be released in the first phase of the deal.

Between the lines: Netanyahu's critics question whether he truly wants a ceasefire, though both he and the White House insist he's prepared to make a deal.

• The Israeli official involved in the talks said the prime minister does want a deal, but is willing to push talks to the brink.

Driving the news: CIA director Bill Burns and President Biden's top Middle East adviser Brett McGurk have been shuttling this week between Egypt, Qatar and Israel to try and push the deal forward.

• On Wednesday, Burns held a joint meeting with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Abdul Rahman al-Thani, Mossad director David Barnea and Egyptian spy chief Abbas Kamel.

• A senior Israeli official said the talks in Doha didn't close all remaining gaps, but helped clarify the remaining sticking points.
• On Thursday, the talks moved to Egypt. An Israeli delegation headed by the director of the Shin Bet security agency traveled to Cairo, Israeli officials said. McGurk also flew to Cairo, while Burns returned to Washington.
• Zoom in: The Cairo talks are focused on security arrangements on the Gaza-Israel border, with Israeli officials focused on preventing weapons smuggling by Hamas, Israeli officials say.

Behind the scenes: U.S. and Israeli intelligence suggests heavy military and international pressure — including from its partners in the region — has made Hamas more inclined to push for a deal, senior U.S. and Israeli officials say.

• According to those officials, several senior Hamas commanders in Gaza have sent messages to senior Hamas officials in Qatar stating that the military situation in Gaza is dire and they want and need a ceasefire, Israeli and U.S. officials said.

What to watch: Netanyahu's conditions on the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza are a key sticking point between the sides.

• The current draft agreement allows the unimpeded return of unarmed displaced Palestinians, but doesn't say anything about a mechanism to verify that, Israeli officials say.
• Israeli, Egyptian, Qatari and U.S. officials are trying to find a solution to this issue outside of the text, officials say.
• Israel is also demanding access to the sensors and cameras that will be placed on the Egyptian side of the border with Gaza as part of the wall project. It's not clear whether that will be possible if Netanyahu sticks to his other demands about Israeli security control along the border.
• One other question is whether Israel will attempt to veto the release of some of the Palestinian prisoners to be released as part of the deal.