Biden's incredible shrinking path to victory
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President Biden appears, for now, to have stalled the Democratic coup triggered by his disastrous debate performance — but at a potentially massive cost.
Why it matters: If Biden remains the nominee and loses to former President Trump in November, as many Democrats privately and publicly believe he will, the failed rebellion will haunt the party for years.
Driving the news: Cook Political Report moved six states toward Trump in its Electoral College ratings Tuesday, citing Biden's decline in national and private battleground polls shared by both Democratic and GOP sources.
The big picture: Heading into the debate, Biden was already a historically unpopular incumbent with a narrow path to winning 270 electoral votes.
- It was the Biden campaign that requested the debate in June — the earliest in U.S. history — in a strategic bid to reset the race and draw national attention to Trump's flaws.
- The gamble backfired in spectacular fashion, redirecting scrutiny to Biden's biggest vulnerability — his age — and setting off widespread calls for him to drop out for the first time all campaign.
Zoom in: Two weeks into the post-debate meltdown, Democrats have found themselves in arguably the worst of all scenarios.
- Biden, with an approval rating hovering around 37%, is weaker and more politically vulnerable than ever. But he insists he's not going anywhere.
- The Democratic Party is fractured and demoralized. Its leaders have closed ranks around Biden, but the enthusiasm is gone. Many Democrats fear Biden could cost them enormously down-ballot.
- Dissenters — even Democratic celebrities like the "Pod Save America" crew of former Obama aides — have been tarnished as "Trump enablers" for questioning whether Biden should continue.
- From now until the election, Biden's every fumble or stumble will risk reigniting a news cycle about his age. It's a vulnerability that will never disappear — and can only get worse with time.
What to watch: Biden's solo press conference after the NATO summit on Thursday will present the first huge test of whether Democratic leaders were right to plow — however reluctantly — full-steam ahead.
The other side: Biden's team argues that the race has not fundamentally changed since the debate, and that the president's position will strengthen once the election is presented as a binary choice, rather than a referendum.
- Biden's most plausible electoral path remains a clean sweep in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where polls suggest he and Trump are neck-and-neck.
- Some positive signs are on the horizon: Inflation is easing (potentially unlocking a September rate cut), illegal border crossings are at a three-year low, and an Israel-Hamas deal appears closer than ever.
- And the race still has one man that unifies all Democrats: Trump, a convicted felon whose role in the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade has proven to be a huge liability at the ballot box.
Between the lines: For now, the Biden campaign is keeping faith in its long-term strategy and robust battleground infrastructure — and counting on Democrats to reunite after they move on from the debate.
- But major challenges lie ahead: While Biden has had a huge advantage in fundraising and ad spending so far, Trump's allies are about to swamp Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin with a $60 million ad campaign.
- "The notion that the presidential [race] is a Toss Up was a stretch even before the debate. Today, Trump has a clear advantage over Biden and a much more plausible path to 270 Electoral votes," tweeted CPR's Dave Wasserman.
