GOP push for ICC sanctions puts Democrats in a bind

• "I am talking with my colleagues on both sides of the aisle and with the administration to see if there could be bipartisan support for an ICC sanctions bill," House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas) told Axios in a statement.
• That's a departure from the GOP's usual tactic of making Democrats take tough votes on Israel-related measures that are doomed in the Senate.

Driving the news: International Criminal Court prosecutor Karim Khan announced on Monday that he is seeking arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as three senior Hamas leaders.

• The news met with bipartisan outcry in Congress and from President Biden, who called the arrest warrant application "outrageous."
• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) called the decision "shameful and unserious," while Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said it is "not only profoundly unfair, but it is reprehensible."

State of play: House Republicans have signaled plans to hold a vote on legislation sanctioning ICC officials involved in prosecuting Israeli officials.

• Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Tuesday the administration is ready to work "on a bipartisan basis" on an "appropriate response."
• Any sanctions bill is likely to be marked up in committee and wouldn't come to the floor until next month at the earliest, three sources familiar with the matter told Axios.

What we're hearing: Several pro-Israel Democrats told Axios they are open to voting for a sanctions bill – though none committed to a vote before they get a chance to see the legislation.

• "It concerns me enough to be open to supporting some kind of sanctions legislation, but it just depends on what's in it," said Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.).
• Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) said "key officials" involved in the ICC decision "should not be given visas to visit the real Disneyland" and instead have to "content themselves with Euro Disney."

Zoom in: For some Democrats, ICC sanctions represent a rare opportunity to step back from the GOP messaging votes that have infuriated them.

• "If the speaker wants to work with Democrats, we're always open to that – especially based on the sentiment that was expressed by the president, by Hakeem Jeffries, by other Democrats, about this application," said Rep. Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.).

Yes, but: It's not yet clear whether a sanctions bill can achieve more than the usual surface-level bipartisan support that most GOP pro-Israel bills receive.

• Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), who has harshly criticized the ICC, said he is "not sure if sanctions would accomplish anything, and they might be seen as interfering in the court process."
• Democrats' general hostility to Netanyahu is another complicating factor: "I like that ICC also went after Hamas, and I think it puts pressure on Netanyahu. I think it helps Benny Gantz with his effort to change the government," said one moderate, pro-Israel Democrat.
• But "if [sanctions] came, would I vote for it? I don't know, that's different," the lawmaker added.

Between the lines: Much of this will depend on whether President Biden and Republicans can craft a deal, said one senior House Democrat.

• "If it's something [the administration] ends up supporting or initiating that doesn't take on the sort of partisan gotcha approach Republicans typically have taken on these issues, you could probably see more Democrats vote for something."