The COP that was: Where pledges stand now
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
At COP26 in Glasgow, countries unveiled side deals that in some ways stole the thunder from the actual agreement that was passed.
Why it matters: Each accord was limited on the enforcement front, and took voluntary environmental commitments to the extreme. The two most prominent ones concern reducing methane emissions and dramatically reducing deforestation.
Zoom in: Countries that signed onto the Methane Pledge agreed to take actions that would accomplish a collective goal of cutting emissions of the relatively short-lived, but still powerful, global warming gas by at least 30% below 2020 levels by 2030.
- More than 150 countries are now participating, but many have not yet put forward a clear plan for how they will bring methane emissions down.
The intrigue: The advent of satellite monitoring of methane emissions, now capable of zooming into the level of individual facilities, offers the potential framework of a name-and-shame enforcement structure.
- These observations are coming from ventures such as Karryos, Climate TRACE, Europe's Sentinel constellation and more.
- Meanwhile, observations of methane in the atmosphere in recent years have shown rapidly rising concentrations.
Between the lines: At COP26, more than 100 world leaders agreed to halt and reverse deforestation and land degradation by 2030.
Yes, but: The trends are defying the pledge. In 2022, the world still lost 10% more primary rainforest than it did the year before, according to the University of Maryland and World Resources Institute.
- Such lands absorb massive amounts of carbon dioxide, which is instead released into the atmosphere when it is burned and cleared.
What's next: At COP28, there may be public-private sector pushes to translate more of the big methane and forest conservation promises into action, backed up by funding and with concrete plans in place.
- The oil and gas sector may be particularly willing to tackle its methane emissions, especially if it takes off some of the pressure to tackle carbon emissions.
- Brazil is a key country to watch for its deforestation proposals, including a possible fund to help control forest losss. Home to much of the Amazon, the nation has recently been suffering through a major drought and spate of heat waves.
Go deeper:
COP28: Here are the key developments to watch
COP28 has high stakes for planet as climate warms, extreme weather surges
