Northwest Arkansas' stunning — yet sometimes painful — reinvention
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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
Northwest Arkansas is a bit like an awkward teen — it's going through a growth spurt that's bound to bring some pain.
Driving the news: Essentially a cluster of 31 small to midsize towns, NWA is the 15th-fastest-growing area in the U.S., on pace to hit nearly 1 million residents by 2045.
- That's more than double its current size, and roughly equal to today's population of Austin, Texas.
Why it matters: It's a pivotal time for an area still tied to farmland, friendly neighbors and a comparatively inexpensive cost of living.
- "I think we're making strategic decisions to ensure [we avoid] some of the pitfalls of other cities around the country that have had such tremendous growth," said Greg Hines, mayor of Rogers, Arkansas — a city of about 71,000 people sharing a border with east Bentonville.
The big picture: Organically and by design, NWA is in the midst of reinventing itself, slowly shaking the hillbilly stereotype associated with the Ozarks.
- It's packed with food establishments and art. It's a Jetson-like test market for drones and driverless trucks. It's a prime location for growing the advanced mobility and holistic health industries. And entrepreneurship is booming here.
- The Wall Street Journal recently crowned Bentonville a "capital of cool," citing new restaurants, galleries and other businesses.
State of play: NWA's largest cities — Bentonville, Fayetteville, Rogers and Springdale — historically competed for industry and residents. But local leaders have warmed to a regional approach in the past decade or so, Hines told Axios.
- Collaboration among the cities on issues such as mass transit, roads, infrastructure and attainable workforce housing will be key to mitigating the aches of growth, Hines said.
- Commercial property vacancy rates in the area are at a record low, compared with a national all-time high.
- Dozens of cranes punctuate the skyline, erecting hotels, the new Walmart HQ and other office buildings.
By the numbers: The region became the country's 100th-largest metropolitan statistical area this year, with an estimated 576,000 residents, up from 356,000 in 2003.
- The Northwest Arkansas Council reported 11,000 open jobs last week.
- Statewide, more than 3,500 new businesses registered with Yelp between Jan. 1 and July, a 26% jump over the same period in 2022 and up 56% from 2019.
How we got here: Exponential growth over the past 20 years has largely been driven by the Walmart magnet.
- In the early 2000s, suppliers — think Procter & Gamble, Ghirardelli and PepsiCo — began locating teams near their largest customer. The area was unofficially dubbed "Vendorville."
- In the early 1990s, when the executive recruiter Cameron Smith & Associates moved here, there were only 48 suppliers with offices near Walmart.
- By 2021, that number had grown to 1,600 by the firm's count — along with about 400 "suppliers to suppliers," like design agencies and packaging specialists.
The rush to be close to Walmart was a boon for real estate, developers, builders and bankers.
- The Great Recession took its toll, but the area fared better than other markets.
Reality check: NWA's growth has been costly.
- Housing prices soared as much as 60% between 2019 and 2022, traffic is worse than ever, and there are concerns about water quality as cities sprawl.
What they're saying: "I do kind of see this region as being in the midst of an identity struggle," said food and travel writer Anela Malik, who has relocated to NWA from Washington, D.C., twice.
- "I do think that Northwest Arkansas, because it's — I'll be frank — a company town, you get a lot of benefits you wouldn't get if you lived in another area."
Worth's thought bubble: As much as a horizon can be in focus for a rapidly flourishing region, the path seems clear: NWA is headed for an intersection of commerce rivaling Silicon Valley and quality of life unmatched anywhere.
