Inside Kevin McCarthy's cliffhanger speaker vote

Why it matters: It's likely that, for the first time in 100 years, the House will hold multiple ballots for speaker.

What we're hearing: Even McCarthy isn't sure of the outcome.

• He expects multiple ballots today. And he's telling members he'll take the fight to as many ballots as necessary to win the speakership, multiple sources familiar with the conversation tell Axios.
• So this could become a war of attrition: A good number of pro-McCarthy House Republicans are hoping some of the holdouts are bluffing and looking for a show — and will ultimately get worn down enough during the process to cave for McCarthy.

State of play: The strongest potential second choice for speaker is Rep. Steve Scalise of Louisiana, the second-ranking House GOP leader after McCarthy.

• Scalise has made it clear he won't run against McCarthy — McCarthy would have to drop out.

• Scalise and his team have been quietly preparing for this scenario, but are being incredibly careful not to be seen as working against McCarthy.

At 8:06 p.m. ET on the eve of the vote, one of the holdouts, Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona, tweeted:

• "Even after the McCarthy Machine's attempts to whip votes, ... [o]ur party still requires new leadership and I will continue to oppose McCarthy for House Speaker."

The bottom line: McCarthy forces tell us that they're still not sure how they'll get there. But they're hanging their hats on their belief that there's no realistic alternative.