Nov 20, 2022 - Politics & Policy

America's frozen midterms

Data: AP, Politico. Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

All that empty space on the map above tells a vivid story about polarized America:

  • For all the national turmoil, America's midterms were played on a remarkably narrow terrain, with only 26 House seats (6% of the races) flipping from one party to the other.

Why it matters: We’re a closely divided country, and neither party was able to move the needle much despite the external turmoil.

  • With hundreds of millions spent in dozens of battlegrounds, voters have largely stuck with the status quo.

Axios' Josh Kraushaar narrates the flips:

  1. Nearly half (7 of 18) of GOP pickups were almost automatic because of redistricting.
  2. Four of the 18 seats Republicans flipped were in New York.
  3. Four of the 8 seats Dems flipped were almost entirely because Republicans nominated MAGA, Trump-aligned candidates.

🧮 By the numbers: 96% of U.S. House races were won by the biggest spender, according to Open Secrets.

  • The next U.S. House is on track for 23 "crossover districts" — seats held by the party opposite of that seat's Biden/Trump winner, Cook Political report's Dave Wasserman projects. That's a rebound from the current all-time low of 16. (More from Josh in tonight's Axios Sneak Peek.)

The bottom line: Republicans are heading for a 222-213 majority — an exact mirror image of Dems' current slim majority, Wasserman says.

Go deeper