Migration to U.S.-Mexico border falls to lowest levels since 2021 surge

• Fewer migrants from the Northern Triangle — Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador — attempted to cross the border last month, with the number falling below that of January 2019.
• There were also fewer migrants traveling from "other" further away nations — a relatively new, major demographic.
• Encounters with Mexican nationals rose slightly over December's numbers, although the vast majority of them were quickly expelled back to Mexico.

The big picture: It's unclear yet whether the decline in border numbers will last.

• The government has struggled to respond to massive numbers of people arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border over the past year. It has created both logistical and political nightmares for the president and his administration.
• Early on, the government struggled to quickly move minors out of unsuitable border patrol facilities and was forced to quickly built temporary shelters along the border.
• Recently, there have been unprecedented numbers of migrants traveling from further away nations in South America and elsewhere.
• Administration officials have attempted to both distance themselves from the harsh immigration rhetoric of the former administration, while also warding off "open border" attacks from the right.

What to watch: The administration has continued to use a Trump-era policy called Title 42, despite outrage from Democrats and immigration advocates as well as a lawsuit threatening the use of the policy.

• Title 42 cites the pandemic as reason for quickly turning back migrants who illegally cross the border without a chance for asylum.
• The policy was used more than 78,000 times last month — also the lowest number since last February.
• Mexicans were kicked back to Mexico 88% of the time under Title 42 last month. Migrants from Guatemala, Honduras or El Salvador were expelled 71% of the time, as opposed to just 5% of migrants from elsewhere.