Axios AM Deep Dive: America's great reset

National

In Minnesota and Nevada, officials are launching initiatives to explain how audits work. In California, they're erecting glass walls to allow people to easily watch ballot counting.

Around the country, state election officials are taking targeted actions to build trust in and answer questions about voting processes for the 2022 midterm elections — their best chance to blunt disinformation and bogus attempts to overturn results. 

Why it matters: The midterms could provide the nation a chance to reset from the chaos of 2020.

Or they could fuel more unrest and distrust, setting the country up for another attempt to overturn the 2024 presidential election.

Elections officials are preparing for the worst.

"The worst case scenario is we lose America as we know it, we lose democracy as we know it," Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) told Axios.

When asked how close states are to having partisan legislatures refuse to back reliable election results, California Secretary of State Shirley Weber (D) told Axios: "I think we're at the brink. And the question is whether or not people will jump."

Details: Axios spoke to six top state election officials, including four in states facing Trump-backed candidates for secretary of state: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Nevada.

Each elections official emphasized the importance of educating voters about voting rules, audits, ballot machines and certification processes in the face of rampant misinformation. 

They're working with local officials, but also across state and party lines to talk through ways to address misinformation.

Despite growing political divides over how elections should be run, Benson said she works closely with Republican secretaries of state, such as those in Kansas, Ohio, Georgia and Iowa, to identify best practices.

Officials are encouraging voters to pay attention to who is running for election-related positions next year — elected positions that often go overlooked but now come with high stakes.

What they're saying: In 2020, "what we saw was a bunch of amateur stuff, like throwing it at the wall to see what stuck," said Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D). In 2022, she expects the efforts to be "more sophisticated ... as sort of a practice run for 2024."

Benson said she and other state officials are preparing for a range of outcomes over the next two general election cycles — from smooth sailing to successful attempts to overturn results in some places. 

Some worry that they do not have enough funds coming from their state to fight misinformation — or enough time. Hobbs said the Arizona Legislature “has made it clear that they don't want our office to use funds for public education." 

"We have limited resources and time," said Mark Wlaschin, Nevada's deputy secretary of state for elections.

The big picture: Election officials continue to get death threats from radicalized Trump voters. 

In Virginia's elections earlier this month, there was a notable increase in partisan volunteers showing up at polling stations to keep an eye on voters — a trend being mirrored in Georgia and other states.

More partisan candidates are running for local and state election offices, where they would have a direct impact on how Election Day runs.

Although none have passed, there have been at least 10 bills introduced at the state level that would allow partisan actors to overturn election results. 

The other side: While most officials focused on recent actions taken by Trump followers, they added that anyone politicizing election processes — on either side of the aisle — can add fuel to the fire. 

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) — a prime target of Trump's 2020 ire — told Axios that protests by Democrats over a recently passed elections bill in Georgia were overhyped.

Raffensperger defended some of the changes as moving toward objective criteria — such as requiring driver's licenses as proof of identity rather than signature matching. He said they will help prevent accusations of fraud as Georgia comes into the spotlight as a new swing state.

He also accused Democrat Stacey Abrams of creating her own "stolen election claim narrative" after her loss in the Georgia governor's race in 2018. (Seth Bringman, a spokesman for Abrams, responded that "Stacey’s work for free and fair elections helped restore much of the faith that was broken" in 2018.)

What to watch: Despite their concerns, multiple officials underscored their faith in American voters to choose nonpartisan election officials rather than those who would attempt to overthrow elections in the future. 

1. The midterm voting test

Election officials are preparing for the worst in 2022 — and 2024.

Illustration of binoculars with “I Voted Today” stickers in the lenses.

Deep Dive - Voting and Democracy

In Minnesota and Nevada, officials are launching initiatives to explain how audits work. In California, they&#x27;re erecting glass walls to allow people to easily watch ballot counting.<ul><li>Around the country, state election officials are taking targeted actions to build trust in and answer questions about voting processes for the 2022 midterm elections — their best chance to blunt disinformation and bogus attempts to overturn results. </li></ul>

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Data: Axios/Ipsos poll; Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios

Republicans' confidence in elections has plummeted since the 2020 election while Democrats' confidence actually rose, according to a new Axios-Ipsos poll. 

Why it matters: A year before the 2022 midterm elections, the survey offers new evidence of how significantly Donald Trump's false claims that the election was stolen from him have eroded trust in the system among his base.

Yes, but: No group favored allowing state legislatures to overturn Electoral College results.

73% of Republicans, 71% of Democrats and 78% of independents said such a move would make them less confident that elections are open and fair.

Between the lines: It's not clear exactly how the GOP mistrust will affect the results of an election that puts control of the House and Senate on the line.

It could damage Republicans' prospects if distrust keeps GOP voters home.

Or, it could boost them if GOP voters' anger over perceived wrongs, and a good shot at retaking Congress, energizes them but Democrats trust the system but are apathetic about their candidates.

There's a third possibility: that the full impact won't really land until the next presidential election.

Majorities in the survey said that when they think ahead to next year's midterms, they're confident the elections will reflect the will of the voters. That was true for 63% of Republicans, 75% of Democrats and 64% of independents.

The findings, measured against the results of a 2019 poll by Ipsos and C-SPAN, suggest that a good number of Republicans and Democrats change their views of voting and democracy depending on whether their side won the last election.

"Are democratic norms failing? 'Well, I lost, so they must be failing,'" said Ipsos pollster and senior vice president Chris Jackson, summarizing the shifts between the two polls.

"It reflects how very much partisan reasoning drives all of this stuff."

By the numbers: Just 37% of Republicans said they have confidence that the next presidential election will be open and fair — down from the 72% who said so in the 2019 poll.

Before the 2020 election, just 39% of Democrats said they had confidence that it would be open and fair. Now, 69% say they're confident about 2024.

The share of Republicans who said elections in America are usually fair was 61% in 2019 but just 38% now, while the share of Democrats who said elections are fair jumped from 40% in 2019 to 65%.

Republicans' confidence that mail-in ballots would be accurately cast and counted in the next election plunged from 63% in 2019 to 33% now. Democrats' confidence rose from 61% in 2019 to 80%.

The big picture: The poll shows how strongly the myth of 2020 election fraud has taken hold. A majority of Republicans — 58% — believe there was significant fraudulent voting in 2020 and that these votes changed the outcome of the election, a finding in line with previous polls despite no evidence of fraud.

Our poll also found that post-election audits ordered by partisan leaders — similar to one that confirmed President Biden's victory in a key Arizona county — would make most Republicans more confident that elections were open and fair, 64% to 34%.

Democrats said audits would make them less confident, 39% to 60%, while independents were split, 50% to 49%.

What we're watching: One move that would make all groups more confident: requiring everyone to show a photo ID to vote.

Although national Democrats have suggested such requirements are unfair to people of color, our poll found that 68% of Democrats, 92% of Republicans and 80% of independents said a photo ID requirement would make them more confident that elections are open and fair.

As polarized as Americans are, the vast majority — including 77% of Republicans, 86% of Democrats and 86% of independents — said it's important to accept the results of an election, even if the other side wins.

There are Republicans and Democrats who said it's more important to explore every avenue to keep the other side out of power, but they're a minority in each party: 20% of Republicans and 12% of Democrats.

"You can see where there's a wing of the Republican Party — and a wing of the Democratic Party, though smaller — that wants to win at all costs," Jackson said.

Methodology: This Axios/Ipsos poll was conducted Nov. 3-14 by Ipsos' KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,273 general population adults age 18 or older.

The margin of sampling error is ±3.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults.

2. Axios-Ipsos poll: Republicans lose trust in elections

Republicans' confidence in elections has plummeted across a variety of measures while Democrats' confidence has risen.

Republicans&#x27; confidence in elections has plummeted since the 2020 election while Democrats&#x27; confidence actually rose, according to a new <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Axios-Ipsos poll" data-vars-click-url="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/Axios-Voting" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/Axios-Voting" target="_blank">Axios-Ipsos poll</a>. Why it matters: A year before the 2022 midterm elections, the survey offers new evidence of how significantly Donald Trump&#x27;s false claims that the election was stolen from him have eroded trust in the system among his base.

People who study democracies around the world will be watching the 2022 midterm elections for new signs of how vulnerable the U.S. system has become.

Why it matters: Even if the true test doesn't come until the 2024 presidential election, the year ahead could set the stage and weaken American democracy in a more lasting way.

Primary challenges against Republicans who resisted Donald Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

Continued efforts to promote the false claims that the election was stolen.

Erosion of voter confidence in legitimate results.

The big picture: In other countries where democracies have eroded, it hasn’t necessarily happened all at once, said Sarah Repucci, who heads research and analysis at Freedom House, a nonprofit that researches democracies around the world.

In countries like Hungary, Poland, Venezuela and Turkey, their leaders rose to power in seemingly democratic fashion, then gradually dismantled the checks on their power.

“Democracies are never undermined in exactly the same manner. It's unique to their systems and where their pressure points are,” she said. “That's what we're seeing here.”

Details: In the U.S., among primary challenges drawing the most attention has been the race targeting Brad Raffensperger, the Georgia secretary of state who stood up to pressure from Trump.

If Raffensperger loses to his primary challenger, Rep. Jody Hice, it would be a "very dangerous sign for democracy," said election law expert Rick Hasen of the University of California, Irvine. Raffensperger resisted Trump’s pressure, and Hice has embraced the stolen-election myths.

Kait Branson, a spokesperson for the Hice campaign, responded: "We aren’t concerned with the opinion of a California professor. We are going to stay focused on our race and renewing integrity in Georgia’s elections."

Also on the watch list: Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), the former House GOP leader who was ousted for refusing to go along with Trump’s election fraud claims.

Attacks on the election system “could become a self-fulfilling prophecy” if they drive experienced people out of the field, said Brendan Nyhan, co-founder of Bright Line Watch, a group that monitors the status of American democracy.

Even the degree of hostility between Republicans and Democrats will be a big concern, said Lee Drutman of the New America organization: “It's very hard for democracy to function” when partisans can't even fathom working with their opponents.

Between the lines: Signs of deeper erosion of American democracy predated the 2020 elections. 

Freedom House this year downgraded its score for U.S. democracy, citing unequal treatment of people of color, a widening gap and deepening hostility between Democrats and Republicans, and the strong influence of money in politics.

The other side: The incentives in next year's contests to challenge the legitimacy of the elections may be weaker than in 2020 for two reasons, Nyhan said: Republicans are favored to make gains. And Trump won’t be at the top of the ticket.

The bottom line: The 2024 election is likely to be a bigger test.

3. What the democracy watchers worry about

They're watching for signs that Republicans who stood up against stolen election lies could be punished.

Illustration of a U.S. map with the flag on top and a large crack in the center. A hand is holding a magnifying glass up to the crack. 

People who study democracies around the world will be watching the 2022 midterm elections for new signs of how vulnerable the U.S. system has become.Why it matters: Even if the true test doesn&#x27;t come until the 2024 presidential election, the year ahead could set the stage and weaken American democracy in a more lasting way.

Axios Media Trends

Data: Axios research; Infographic: Alli Torban/Axios

Donald Trump's "big lie" playbook — the collection of falsehoods alleging that the 2020 election was stolen through voting fraud — mirrors the tactics used by sophisticated spreaders of disinformation. 

The big picture: Research from the Harvard Kennedy School Shorenstein Center shows there's a typical cycle that people use to manipulate the media and spread disinformation. Trump's dissemination of false claims of a stolen election demonstrates how the cycle works.

How it works: Disinformation spreaders typically start by planning their narratives early and seeding their lies online, where they can spread quickly, reaching people faster than critics can counter the disinformation. 

That's what happened when Trump planted the seeds of his voting fraud claims early — well before the general election — and spread them through interviews and social media.

Information gatekeepers like journalists, TV networks and tech platforms then try to mitigate the problem, as they did by banning Trump's accounts after the Jan. 6 insurrection.

The former president adapted by creating other channels to get out his message, such as a new blog, which ultimately shut down, and most recently a plan to launch a social media network called "Truth Social," which has filed to go public via a SPAC.

"The main and most effective way the cycle gets broken is in that they never jump from Stage 2 to Stage 3" and "something just sputters out in Stage 2," says Emily Dreyfuss, senior editor at the Shorenstein Center. 

"When that happens, which is all the time, the campaign never gets much attention and so most people never know it existed in the first place."

Go deeper: Trump stokes fears of election-night mail voting fraud

4. How the "big lie" spread

The playbook mirrors the tactics used by sophisticated spreaders of disinformation.

Donald Trump&#x27;s &quot;big lie&quot; playbook — the collection of falsehoods alleging that the 2020 election was stolen through voting fraud — mirrors the tactics used by sophisticated spreaders of disinformation. The big picture: <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Research" data-vars-click-url="https://mediamanipulation.org/methods" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://mediamanipulation.org/methods" target="_blank">Research</a> from the Harvard Kennedy School Shorenstein Center shows there&#x27;s a typical cycle that people use to manipulate the media and spread disinformation. Trump&#x27;s dissemination of false claims of a stolen election demonstrates how the cycle works.

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Technology

Data: Brennan Center for Justice; Map: Kavya Beheraj/Axios

Your ability to vote in 2022 will largely depend on where you live, as lawmakers in 25 states have made it easier for people to vote while those in at least 19 states have made it more difficult, per the Brennan Center for Justice. 

Why it matters: The new laws are likely to make the disparities between states even greater. The states where voting is already difficult have been the ones to enact stricter laws; those where it is easier to vote have expanded access to the ballot box. 

For example, 17 of 25 states that have enacted expansive voting laws in 2021 did not also enact restrictive legislation.

This is based on data as recent as Sept. 27, but most legislative sessions are over for the year, so we likely won't see any significant voting laws introduced or passed through the end of 2021.

What to watch: Federal voting rights legislation to address this dynamic has been stuck in Congress, caught between Democrats who want to expand voting access and Republicans who are more concerned about preventing fraud.

The big picture: There were a number of changes to the way we vote in 2020 after the coronavirus pandemic altered our way of life. 

Measures like curbside voting, no-excuse early voting, and expanded mail-in balloting were implemented in response to the pandemic. 

Eight states have either extended or permanently implemented expansive voting policies from 2020.

Other states (New York, Connecticut and Washington) have moved to restore the right to vote to people with past convictions.

Between the lines: In the states where voting restrictions have been enacted, lawmakers have imposed measures like stricter voter ID laws, limited the number of ballot drop boxes, and made it more difficult to vote early or by mail. 

A new trend that has emerged in at least four states so far is criminal voting laws — imposing harsh criminal penalties on voters or election officials who do things like hand out water to people waiting in line (Georgia) or returning a ballot for someone with a disability who couldn’t otherwise do it themselves (Iowa and Kansas). 

And in Texas, elections officials who encourage voters to request mail ballots can face criminal charges.

The bottom line: Voter turnout reached its highest level in a century during last year's presidential election — but the fallout from that election is also what has inspired these new voting laws across the country.

Editor's note: The map with this story has been corrected to note that Colorado expanded voting rights, rather than restricting and expanding them.

5. Mapped: Voting rights for 2022

States where voting is already difficult have enacted stricter laws.

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1. The midterm voting test