Jul 23, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Cook Political Report says Democrats are favored to reclaim Senate

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on July 21.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on July 21. Photo: Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

Cook Political Report on Thursday moved its outlook to a net gain of five to seven Senate seats for Democrats, and now says Democrats are slightly favored to win the Senate majority. 

Why it matters: Cook currently forecasts that President Trump's troubles could affect Republicans down the ballot, calling the incumbent president the "decided underdog against former Vice President Joe Biden."

The state of play: Democrats must win at least four Senate seats to claim the majority.

  • Cook moved the race in Arizona between Sen. Martha McSally (R) and former astronaut Mark Kelly (D) from "toss up" to leaning Democratic in its July rating.
  • It also moved the races in Iowa between Sen. Joni Ernst (R) and Theresa Greenfield (D) and Georgia between Sen. David Perdue and Jon Ossoff from leaning Republican to toss-ups.
  • It moved Minnesota's and New Mexico's races from likely Democratic to solidly Democratic.

The big picture: Cook also shifted its outlook for 20 House races toward Democrats last week, signaling that Democrats stand to widen their lead in the House.

  • Republicans need to pick up 18 seats to win the House back in 2020, but polling is firmly moving against that hope.
  • Meanwhile, Trump is trailing Biden in multiple state polls less than four months before November's election.

Go deeper: Poll shows Biden beating Trump by 13 points in Florida

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