Jul 8, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Cook Political Report says Biden has Electoral College edge

Biden and Trump.

Photos: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images; Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

The Cook Political Report on Wednesday updated its Electoral College forecast to give Joe Biden a decisive edge in the presidential contest, suggesting that November could bring more of "a Democratic tsunami than simply a blue wave."

Why it matters: Cook's forecast, which says 279 electoral votes are at least leaning toward the former vice president, ponders that Trump may be "close to the point of no return," with some analysts the group spoke to wondering if the president now faces "a permanent loss of trust and faith of the majority of voters."

Cook's latest moves:

  • Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district went from "toss up" to "lean Democrat." It similarly moved Michigan, a center of Trump's white, working-class base, to "lean Democrat" last month.
  • Maine moved from "lean Democrat" to "likely Democrat." And its 2nd congressional district, which grants its electoral vote separately, moved from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican."
  • Georgia moved from "lean Republican" to "toss up."

Worth noting: It's only July — and Cook says as much — but Trump has recently dug in with his law-and-order approach that caters to his base.

  • It also notes the uncertainty surrounding the actual act of voting in November amid the coronavirus pandemic, as the president continues to push against the idea of mail-in voting with unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud.
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