President Trump in Warren, Mich., in January. Photo: Brittany Greeson/Getty Images

The Cook Political Report on Friday moved its prediction of Michigan's 2020 presidential election results from "toss up" to "leans Democratic."

Why it matters: The state, which President Trump flipped in 2016, remains a key swing state in 2020 — and can be viewed as a bellwether for an important section of the president's base due to its concentration of white, working-class voters.

  • Cook based its decision on the fact that polling averages have Joe Biden leading by 10 points in the state — higher than other similar battlegrounds, like Pennsylvania — and increasingly winning over shares of Republican and independent voters there.
  • But Cook's Amy Walter does note that Trump's polling currently is at a trough — and says it's not yet clear if "he's done permanent damage to his re-election prospects among" his base in Michigan.

Worth noting: In Cook's latest update, Iowa and Ohio also moved from "likely Republican" to the more competitive "lean Republican" category.

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