Sign up for our daily briefing
Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.
Stay on top of the latest market trends
Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.
Sports news worthy of your time
Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.
Tech news worthy of your time
Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.
Get the inside stories
Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver
Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines
Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities
Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay
Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte
Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images
Some top Democrats are already predicting that President Trump will lose the popular vote again in 2020, but might very well win the election by a single electoral vote.
What they're saying: Jim Messina, President Obama's 2012 campaign manager, predicted the race will come down to two or three states, "We could be sitting on Election Day not knowing who will win."
Here’s one scenario, put forth by Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman:
- Democrats flip Michigan and Pennsylvania, increase their stronghold in California, and narrow the loss in Texas — helping Dems win the popular vote by nearly 5 million votes.
- But Trump narrowly holds onto Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Wisconsin — which Democrats are gunning for — and keeps the White House.
"His electoral coalition is stronger in the states that matter (the Midwest, most notably) than it is nationally," said Kyle Kondik of Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.
- Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) pushed back on the assertion that Dems are likely to lose Wisconsin again, arguing that's why the DNC is hosting the 2020 convention in Milwaukee.
- But don't forget Dems' 2016 national convention was in Philadelphia — and they lost Pennsylvania.
- And, according to a source familiar with Trump's re-election strategy, the campaign wants to collect as much Florida voter information as early as possible, so they can lock up that key state. That's why his kickoff rally was in Orlando.
The other side: "Everyone always speculates about the map and different states. At the DNC we take nothing for granted and our job is to build the infrastructure to ensure our eventual nominee has multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes," said David Bergstein, DNC Director of Battleground State Communications.
By the numbers: In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes. He won the electoral vote by 74.
Go deeper: Trump's 2020 map from hell