Nov 21, 2019

Goldman Sachs sees break in the clouds in latest economic forecast

Goldman Sachs New York headquarters

Goldman Sachs' New York headquarters. Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

"Slightly better growth, limited recession risk and friendly monetary policy should provide a decent background for financial markets in the early part of 2020," Goldman Sachs Economics Research says in a 21-page forecast by Jan Hatzius, Daan Struyven and Ronnie Walker.

The big picture: "We expect the global growth slowdown that began in early 2018 to end soon, in response to easier financial conditions and an end to the trade escalation," the authors say.

Yes, but: "However, concerns about the impact of higher corporate taxes on profits could rise in the run-up to the U.S. presidential election. Even aside from politics, rising wage growth looks set to reduce profit margins over the next several years."

Axios thought bubble: If you're the Trump campaign, you heart this forecast.

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