Illustration: Axios Visuals

With less than a week until Election Day, top operators in both parties tell me the events of the past week have helped lock in the split decision they have long seen coming: The House flips to Dems (probably decisively), and Republicans hold the Senate (and perhaps gain two seats).

What they're saying: Democrats who had grown skittish about taking the House say they're resting easier. "The panic has abated," said a well-known Democrat on a secret mission in one of the key states.

Some top Republicans tell me they worry that their candidates will pay a price following the anti-Semitic murders in Pittsburgh and the arrest of a rabid Trump supporter for the mail bombs.

  • "World looks crazy and we are in charge of it," said an official closely involved in the House fight.
  • "Hard to imagine a worse week at a worse time. What it means is hard to know exactly, but certainly not helping us win close races."
  • And why might the news have a split effect for Senate and House? "I think red state voters see the president leading the nation in a crisis, where the suburban voters blame him for the tone," a veteran GOP adviser said.

The one thing worrying Democrats ... A longtime Democratic operative said this is what to watch for on Tuesday:

  • "Super low turnout: Democrats win. Our core voters are going to vote. They hate Trump. They are dying to vote. Look at the Upshot/Siena polls. In every race where they do a turnout model, when they do voters 'certain to vote,' our candidates win. By a lot."
  • "Super high turnout: Democrats win. In addition to owning the most intense voters, we also own the least intense voters. Largely young people."
  • "But medium turnout: That scares me. The GOP owns the voters who aren’t quite as intense as our voters, but who are show-up-often voters."

Be smart ... One reason the cake may already be baked: As many as 40% of votes have been cast in early voting.

  • Disclaimer: This represents the consensus view of the top Democrats and Republicans most involved in the 2018 campaigns — all of whom were involved in 2016. This is the age of disruption: New shocks await, I guarantee.

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Judge Amy Coney Barrett in the Rose Garden of the White House on Sept. 26. Photo: Oliver Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

Democratic and Republican lawmakers along with other leading political figures reacted to President Trump's Saturday afternoon nomination of federal appeals court Judge Amy Coney Barrett to succeed Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court.

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Trump introduces Amy Coney Barrett as nominee to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Photo: Olivier Douleiry/Getty Images

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