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Portland voters casting their ballots in 2010. Photo: John Ewing/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images

Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman crunched the numbers from the "wave" elections in the 2006 and 2010 midterms, and found that if things broke the same way in 2018, Democrats would net nearly 40 seats in the House.

Between the lines: Wasserman found the party not in power in those years saw these averages:

  • 100% of their party's seats rated by Cook as "lean," "likely," or "solid" in their favor.
  • 57% of the "toss up" seats.
  • 19% of the seats rated "lean" toward the opposite party.
  • 9% of the seats rated "likely" toward the opposite party.
  • And none of the "solid" seats favoring the other party.

Be smart: "There are a few reasons to doubt they'll break in the same pattern as '06/'10," Wasserman tweets:

  • Republican voters "are far more engaged in '18 than they were in '06 or Dems were in '10."
  • There's "far more polling this year, giving us more opportunities to 'diagnose' R problems. Still, a few surprises likely."

Go deeper

GOP Rep. Andrew Clyde defends comparison of Jan. 6 riot to "tourists"

Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.) departs a press conference on June 14. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.) defended comments made during a House committee hearing in which he compared the deadly Jan. 6 Capitol riot to a "normal visit."

The big picture: In a heated back-and-forth during a Rules Committee meeting on Tuesday, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), who sits on the select committee investigating the attack, pressed Clyde on whether he had watched the officers' testimony earlier in the day.

51 mins ago - Health

England lifts quarantine requirement for vaccinated EU, U.S. citizens

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and President Biden at the G7 in Cornwall last month. Photo: Leon Neal - WPA Pool/Getty Images

Fully vaccinated travelers from the European Union and the U.S. will no longer need to quarantine when arriving in England, effective Aug. 2 at 4 a.m. local time, the U.K. government announced Wednesday.

Why it matters: It's a reflection of the British government's confidence in its highly successful COVID-19 vaccine rollout, despite the spread of the Delta variant. The move stands in stark contrast to the Biden administration's continued refusal to lift restrictions for travelers from the U.K. and Europe.

3 hours ago - Sports

Simone Biles is still a winner

Photo: Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images

Simone Biles' leadership on the mat has never been questioned. After her shocking withdrawal from Tuesday's team final, she proved just as capable a leader off of it.

What happened: During the first rotation, Biles performed an uncharacteristically bad vault, appearing to lose herself in midair.