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Portland voters casting their ballots in 2010. Photo: John Ewing/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images

Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman crunched the numbers from the "wave" elections in the 2006 and 2010 midterms, and found that if things broke the same way in 2018, Democrats would net nearly 40 seats in the House.

Between the lines: Wasserman found the party not in power in those years saw these averages:

  • 100% of their party's seats rated by Cook as "lean," "likely," or "solid" in their favor.
  • 57% of the "toss up" seats.
  • 19% of the seats rated "lean" toward the opposite party.
  • 9% of the seats rated "likely" toward the opposite party.
  • And none of the "solid" seats favoring the other party.

Be smart: "There are a few reasons to doubt they'll break in the same pattern as '06/'10," Wasserman tweets:

  • Republican voters "are far more engaged in '18 than they were in '06 or Dems were in '10."
  • There's "far more polling this year, giving us more opportunities to 'diagnose' R problems. Still, a few surprises likely."

Go deeper

Airlines plot pilot comeback with hirings

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Airlines are readying more pilots for a blowout bounce-back in demand.

Why it matters: The companies were clobbered by the pandemic. Now they're racing to make sure they're ready for a flying boom.

Tim Scott hopes to reintroduce version of GOP police reform bill

Photo: Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) told reporters Wednesday he plans to reintroduce his police reform bill or a similar proposal in the coming weeks and that he has discussed a potential compromise with Rep. Karen Bass (D-Calif.) and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.).

Why it matters: Eyes have again turned to Washington to take steps to address police reform in the wake of Derek Chauvin's guilty verdict Tuesday, after efforts stalled in Congress last year.