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The energy squeeze behind the Iran war and AI boom

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Axios Macro

The U.S. inflation problem is getting worse

A line chart that tracks year-over-year producer price index changes from April 2016 to April 2026 for overall final demand and a core measure excluding food, energy and trade services. Overall the index peaked at 11.6% in March 2022, and reached 6% in April 2026.

Change in Producer Price Index

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios

Trump's five-alarm economy

Iran war energy shock squeezes U.S. paychecks

A line chart that compares monthly year-over-year changes in consumer prices and average hourly earnings from January 2021 to April 2026. CPI rises from 1.4% to a peak of 9% in June 2022, then eases to 2.3% in April 2025 before reaching 3.8% in April 2026. Wage growth peaks at 5.9% in March 2022.

Year-over-year change in wages vs. inflation

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Axios Visuals

Inflation hits three-year high in April as Iran war impacts consumer prices

A line chart that tracks monthly year-over-year CPI changes from January 2021 to April 2026 for overall inflation and core inflation, excluding food and energy. Overall CPI rose from 1.4% to 9% in June 2022, then eased to 2.3% in April 2025 before reaching 3.8% in April 2026.

Year-over-year change in Consumer Price Index

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Courtenay Brown/Axios

The Fed's inflation reckoning deja vu

"Momflation" is changing how we celebrate Mother's Day

U.S. economy adds 115,000 jobs in April, while jobless rate holds steady

U.S. adds 115,000 jobs in April, but jobless rate steady

A column chart that shows monthly changes in U.S. nonfarm payroll employment from August 2025 to April 2026. Payrolls ranged from a low of minus 156,000 in February 2026 to a high of 185,000 in March 2026. The data alternates between gains and losses before ending with a 115,000 increase in April.

Change in U.S. nonfarm payroll employment

Why an AI productivity boom could justify higher rates

Why an AI productivity boom could justify higher interest rates

McDonald's sales grow amid fast-food value wars

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