Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios Pro Rata

Dive into the world of dealmakers across VC, PE and M&A with Axios Pro Rata. Delivered daily to your inbox by Dan Primack and Kia Kokalitcheva.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Nashville news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Nashville newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Columbus news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Columbus newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Dallas news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Dallas newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Austin news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Austin newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Atlanta news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Atlanta newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Philadelphia news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Philadelphia newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Chicago news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Chicago newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas

Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top DC news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios DC newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) highlights price hikes last month. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Ahead of Thursday's inflation data, the White House is confident the economic recovery will continue, with sources highlighting recent analysis — including from Goldman Sachs — that inflation will remain transitory.

Why it matters: The monthly release of the Consumer Price Index will add fresh fodder to the debate about whether inflation will be short-term or part of a long-term, and dangerous, cycle. Republican critics are already seizing on the topic.

  • They argue that President Biden's massive government spending is making everyday items more expensive.
  • Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suggested, for the first time, inflation could reach 3% on a “year-over-year” basis, though she insisted it would be “transitory.”

Driving the news: For a growing number of economists, Yellen’s 3% figure may be underestimating the potential risk. And inflation may be higher, some warn.

  • “After (Thursday's) number and the July number, we will very likely have already had 3% inflation in 2021,” said Larry Summers, a former Treasury secretary and National Economic Council director for President Obama. “Perhaps at that point, policymakers will be appropriately concerned.”
  • "So far this year, inflation is running at a 6% rate,” said Jason Furman, a chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under Obama. “It is likely to moderate ... but likely to be above 3%, and 4% is completely plausible.”

Go deeper: Monthly CPI data measure price increases, both on a month-to-month and year-to-year basis. One month's numbers won't settle the debate about the endurance of recent inflation.

  • For example, in April the cost of an airline ticket rose 10.2%, but that was compared to last April, when virtually no one was flying because of the pandemic lockdown.
  • Some progressive economists have argued many recent CPI numbers are reflecting that prices are snapping back to their pre-pandemic levels.
  • “Inflation data are particularly susceptible to cherry-picking,” said Austan Goolsbee, who also was a CEA chair under Obama. “Anyone can say, 'But what about the price of salami?' — or something — if it’s skyrocketing.”
  • “The most critical thing about inflation is something that cannot be answered in one month’s number.”

What they are saying: The most accurate forecasters “assign only a 7% chance that inflation will be high next year,” former Office of Management and Budget director Peter Orszag wrote in an article the White House highlighted.

  • Goldman Sachs has written that "there are strong reasons to believe the inflation pickup will … remain transitory."
  • After factoring in Biden’s economic and vaccination plans, the World Bank has estimated U.S. GDP growth at 6.8 % — nearly double its last estimate of 3.5%.

The other side: “Higher recent inflation readings in consumer prices are a cause for concern," wrote Glenn Hubbard, former CEA chair under President Bush.

  • “I am more worried now than I was two months ago,” said Doug Holtz-Eakin, the president of the American Action Forum and former director of the Congressional Budget Office. “So far, we haven’t seen core inflation move up sharply, but that’s coming.”

Go deeper

Powell gaining Senate moderates' support

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Some Senate Democrats are urging President Biden to reappoint Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for a second term, suggesting that replacing him could erode the independence of the institution.

Why it matters: Public support from centrist Democrats has the potential to cinch reappointment for a figure credited with helping the country navigate the huge economic hit of the coronavirus pandemic. Powell's just completing what some termed a summer audition.

Bryan Walsh, author of Future
Sep 15, 2021 - World

The global food price crisis isn't going away

Data: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; Chart: Axios Visuals

Global food prices have continued to rise throughout the pandemic, and they're now at close to the highest level they've been in decades.

Why it matters: Beyond the hunger and suffering that comes with costlier food, high prices are driving serious political discontent around the world — and there's little relief in sight.

Justice Department closes Emmett Till murder probe

A faded photograph is attached to the headstone that marks the gravesite of Emmett Till in Burr Oak Cemetery in Chicago, Illinois. Photo: Scott Olson via Getty Images

The family of Emmett Till announced Monday that the Department of Justice has formally closed its second investigation into the 1955 murder of Emmett Till.

Why it matters: The DOJ reopened the probe in 2018 after the white woman at the center of the case reportedly recanted her allegation that Till, a Black 14-year-old, sexually harassed her prior to his murder.