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Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif. Photo: Ahmad Al-Rubaye/AFP via Getty

There are still big gaps between the U.S. and Iranian positions on what a mutual return to the 2015 nuclear deal looks like, a senior State Department official told reporters on Thursday ahead of the next round of talks in Vienna.

Why it matters: The talks are at a critical stage as key deadlines approach, after which a deal could be much harder to reach. The official said an agreement could be reached within a few weeks, but that the Iranian position will have to change significantly to make that happen.

The state of play: As Axios reported on Wednesday, one key gap is over the nuclear capabilities Iran would retain after returning to the deal — in particular what will happen to Iran's new advanced centrifuges.

  • The senior official said it was clear what would be required of Iran under the terms of the 2015 deal, but confirmed that the Iranians were seeking less severe restrictions.
  • The Iranians are also making "unrealistic demands" in terms of the sanctions they expect the U.S. to lift, the official said.
  • "They have made demands that are beyond what we believe is required and they haven't committed to what we believe is required," the official said. Then there's the unresolved question of how to sequence the U.S. and Iranian steps.

Still, the official said the negotiations are "not rocket science," and a deal could be reached before Iran's June 18 presidential elections so long as the Iranians accept that the aim is "not reinventing the JCPOA, but complying with it."

  • "This is a political decision the Iranians need to make," the senior U.S. official said.

At the same time, the official said the Biden administration is preparing for the possibility that the talks will break down without any deal.

  • “If that happens, the Biden administration will deal with it and will do everything to make sure Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapon — but we prefer reaching an understanding," the official stressed.

What's next: Another round of nuclear talks is expected to take place in Vienna on Friday, with U.S. envoy Rob Malley negotiating indirectly with the Iranians through EU meditators.

  • On May 20, a temporary deal that allows the International Atomic Energy Agency to monitor some Iranian nuclear sites is due to expire. That could severely diminish the international community's visibility into Iran’s nuclear program and further complicate the path to a deal.

Go deeper

Scoop: Biden taps Russia hawk for key energy post

Then-Vice President Biden with Hochstein at the Caribbean Energy Security Summit in 2015. Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

President Biden has appointed close former adviser Amos Hochstein as a State Department energy envoy charged with implementing a U.S.-Germany deal allowing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to be completed, sources familiar with the decision tell Axios.

Why it matters: Hochstein has been a leading voice against Nord Stream 2, a strategic and financial priority for the Kremlin that will allow Russia to bypass Ukraine and deliver gas directly to the heart of Europe.

Miriam Kramer, author of Space
18 mins ago - Science

A new NASA astronaut corps for the next era in space

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

NASA's next crewed missions to the Moon will need a larger, differently-trained and multi-skilled astronaut corps to deliver on the agency's ambitions.

Why it matters: NASA has plans to fly astronauts to the surface of the Moon in 2025 and ultimately establish a long-term presence there. That goal requires a robust corps with new, specialized training in what it takes to live and work on the Moon — and NASA needs to start planning now.

China builds its own movie empire

Expand chart
Data: Gower Street citing Comscore; Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios

China blocked all four of Disney's Marvel movies from being released in its theaters last year, a grim sign for U.S. film giants being squeezed out of the world's fastest-growing box office.

Why it matters: The Chinese Communist Party is using domestic films as a key conduit for mass messaging aimed at achieving political goals, leaving little room for foreign views.