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The South Pars oil field facilities in Iran. Photo: Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images

The U.S. exit from the Iran deal will hurt European countries, but leave room for the Chinese and Russians.

The bottom line: Last year, the U.S. exported only $140 million in goods to Iran, but the stakes are far higher for European countries. Still, if they have to choose between the $400 billion per year Iranian market and the $18 trillion per year U.S. market, they will chose the U.S., says Barbara Slavin, director of the Atlantic Council's Future of Iran Initiative.

The losers...

  • Iran is the ultimate loser. The Iran deal was negotiated to restore Iran–Europe trade, but it's poised for collapse.
  • Boeing is losing $20 billion in deals with Iran, though CEO Dennis Muilenberg says the blow will not impact 737 production.
  • Airbus, Boeing's French competitor, will lose another $20 billion in deals. Bloomberg reports that Airbus has "undelivered planes bound for Iran Air in its backlog."
  • Smaller European aviation companies will be hit even harder as they do not have big order lists, says Thomas Duesterberg, a former Commerce Dept. assistant secretary for international economic policy now at the Hudson Institute.
  • European oil and gas companies, like France's Total and the British-Dutch Shell. Total has a $5 billion, 20-year contract to develop Iran's South Pars oil field, reports the AP.
  • American companies could be hit if their foreign subsidiaries are affected. One example is Baker-Hughes, an international oil company owned by General Electric.
  • French carmakers Peugeot and Renault will also be affected, Slavin says.
  • German manufacturer Siemens has ongoing projects in Iran that could be hit. Siemens CFO Ralf Thomas told Reuters the company will complete existing projects “as far as legally possible."
  • Japanese and South Korean companies that do business with Iran will also fall in line with the U.S. because they need to cooperate with Washington amid tense negotiations with North Korea, says Slavin.

The winners...

  • China is well-positioned to evade U.S. sanctions as it can do business with Iran without getting near the U.S. financial system, Slavin says. Total could lose its stake in the South Pars field to its Chinese partner, the China National Petroleum Corporation.
  • Russia is also poised to skirt Washington's sanctions.

Go deeper: The options on the table for Iran and Europe

Go deeper

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Netanyahu is out as new Israeli government survives confidence vote

Photo: Gil Cohen-Magen/AFP via Getty Images

Israel has a new prime minister for the first time since 2009 after a power-sharing government led by Naftali Bennett survived a confidence vote on Sunday. Bennett was sworn in as prime minister.

Why it matters: Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister and the man around whom Israeli politics have revolved for a decade, will now become opposition leader. Bennett, a right-wing former Netanyahu protege, will lead the most ideologically diverse government in Israeli history.

Updated 1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

Afghanistan, cyber defense on the agenda for Biden in Brussels

Joe Biden arrives at Melsbroek Military Airport in Brussels on June 13. Photo: Yves Herman/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

President Biden touched down in Brussels on Sunday evening ahead of two days of talks with NATO and European Union leaders as part of his first foreign trip as president.

Driving the news: Biden was greeted on the tarmac by Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo and a slate of other officials, including Douglas Jones and Mark Libby, the U.S. Permanent Representatives to NATO and the EU respectively.

Maersk CEO: Global businesses should be wary of politics

Photo: "Axios on HBO"

The CEO of the world's largest container-shipping company cautions that international firms have to be careful of taking political stances.

  • What they're saying: "We cannot run a global business if we start to have views on politics in every single country that we are in," Maersk CEO Søren Skou tells "Axios on HBO."