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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Declining COVID cases, rising vaccination rates, trillions of dollars in government spending and an accommodative Federal Reserve are coming together to create a year of U.S. economic growth for the record books.

Why it matters: A sustained, surging economy is the best way to erase the brutal legacy of business losses and unemployment caused by the pandemic.

Driving the news: This morning's first look at Q1 U.S. economic growth is expected to top 6%.

  • Year-long forecasts for growth are even higher; Goldman Sachs — in a research note literally titled "Anatomy of a Boom" — predicts more than 7% growth in 2021, a sustained pace not seen in more than 30 years.
  • The bank writes that post-vaccine hopes of economic rebound are changing from "from forecast to fact."

The Federal Reserve also upgraded its view of the economy yesterday and this week's measure of consumer confidence hit its highest reading since the pandemic began.

What's next: More data is coming to bolster the boom case.

  • Retail sales are expected to have surged in March, with Credit Suisse forecasting sales will top the pre-pandemic peak of Feb. 2020, and housing starts should reverse a recent decline.

The bottom line: Get used to lots of economic charts going up and to the right.

Go deeper

U.S. unemployment rate hits new pandemic-era low

Photo: Shawn Thew/EPA/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The U.S. economy added 943,000 jobs in July, while the unemployment rate fell from 5.9% to a new pandemic-era low of 5.4%.

Why it matters: It’s the biggest hiring spree in almost a year as the labor market makes strides to a full recovery.

At least 3 dead after Amtrak train derails in Montana

Photo: Robert Alexander/Getty Images

An Amtrak train derailed near Joplin, Montana, killing at least three people and wounding many others on Saturday afternoon, per a Liberty County Sheriff's Office statement to media outlets.

Details: Some 147 passengers and 13 crew were aboard the Empire Builder train, which runs from Seattle to Chicago, when five cars derailed about 4p.m., Amtrak spokesperson Kimberly Woods said in an emailed statement.

New York prepares for staff shortages from health vaccine mandate

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul during a news conference Tuesday in New York City.. Photo: Mark Kauzlarich/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) announced Saturday she would declare a state of emergency if there were health worker shortages due to New York's upcoming COVID-19 vaccine mandate.

Why it matters: Hochul moved to reassure concerns of staffing shortages in the health care sector in a statement that also outlined plans to call in medically trained National Guard members, workers from outside New York and retirees if necessary when the mandate takes effect Monday.

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