Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The U.S. government's budget deficit is projected to top $1 trillion in 2020, according to the latest Congressional Budget Office report released Tuesday.

The big picture: If the projections pan out, this would be the first time since 2012 the deficit hit $1 trillion. In 2020, deficits are expected to increase from 4.6% of GDP to 5.4% in 2030 — growing to the highest sustained levels since World War II, according to the report.

  • 2017's tax cuts and a notable uptick in new spending are among the reasons for widening the deficit.

By the numbers: The CBO expects the federal government will spend $4.6 trillion in the 2020 fiscal year and bring in $3.6 trillion in tax revenue.

  • If current laws on taxes and spending remain unchanged, debt held by the public will jump to 98% by the end of 2030 — up from 79% of the GDP in 2019.
  • The economy is anticipated to expand by 2.2% in 2020, per the CBO's report, falling short of the Trump administration's 3% goal.
  • Total debt held by the U.S. government is also estimated to swell from roughly $18 trillion in 2020 to $31 trillion by 2030.

Reality check via the Washington Post: "The CBO report shows that tax collections are weaker than they would be without the 2017 Republican tax law, which permanently locked in lower rates for many corporations while creating temporary reductions for households."

What it means: If federal debt continues to rise at this pace, interest payments to foreign debt holders will increase and U.S. household incomes will decline.

Go deeper: National debt surpasses record $23 trillion

Go deeper

Updated 30 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 33,642,602 — Total deaths: 1,007,769 — Total recoveries: 23,387,825Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 7,191,061 — Total deaths: 205,998 — Total recoveries: 2,813,305 — Total tests: 103,155,189Map.
  3. Health: Americans won't take Trump's word on the vaccine, Axios-Ipsos poll finds.
  4. Politics: 7 former FDA commissioners say Trump is undermining agency's credibility
  5. States: NYC's coronavirus positivity rate spikes to highest since June.
  6. Sports: Tennessee Titans close facility amid NFL's first coronavirus outbreak.
  7. World: U.K. beats previous record for new coronavirus cases.
  8. Work: United States of burnout — Asian American unemployment spikes amid pandemic

In photos: Deadly wildfires devastate California's wine country

The Shady Fire ravages a home as it approaches Santa Rosa in Napa County, California, on Sept. 28. The blaze is part of the massive Glass Fire Complex, which has razed 46,600 acres at 2% containment. Photo: Samuel Corum/Agence France-Presse/AFP via Getty Images

Some 18,700 firefighters are battling 27 major blazes across California, including in the heart of the wine country, where one mega-blaze claimed the lives of three people and forced thousands of others to evacuate this week.

The big picture: 8,155 wildfires have burned across a record 3.86 million acres, killing 26 people and razing almost 7,900 structures in California this year, per Cal Fire. Just like the deadly blazes of 2017, the wine country has become a wildfires epicenter. Gov. Gavin Newsom has declared a state of emergency in Napa, Sonoma, and Shasta counties.

Mike Allen, author of AM
Updated 3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

The first Trump v. Biden presidential debate was a hot mess

Photos: Jim Watson and Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

This debate was like the country: Everybody’s talking. Nobody’s listening. Nothing is learned. It’s a mess.

  • We were told President Trump would be savage. Turned out, that was a gross understatement. Even the moderator, Fox News' Chris Wallace, got bulldozed.

Why it matters: Honestly, who the hell knows?