Data has consistently shown that trade between the U.S. and China is slowing down significantly, so much so that Mexico recently supplanted China (and Canada) as the top U.S. trading partner.
The bottom line: Deutsche Bank Securities chief economist Torsten Slok points out that the U.S. has clearly shifted one-to-one its imports away from China and toward the rest of the world.
- Investors expect things to work themselves out, but economists and market analysts at major banks are starting to worry more publicly that the trade war isn't ending anytime soon.
What they're saying: Analysts at Nomura now say there's a 65% chance the U.S. puts tariffs on all imports from China, and strategists at JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are rewriting expectations as well.
- "Additional trade-related actions taken over the last several days further raise the risk of additional US tariffs on imports from China and further reduce the chances of a formal agreement at the June G20 meeting," Alec Phillips, a strategist on Goldman Sachs' economic research team, wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.
- "While there is substantial uncertainty, we believe the odds are slightly greater that further US-China tariff escalation is avoided. That said, this is a close call and without additional signs of progress over the next few weeks, implementation of the next round of tariffs on $300bn of imports from China could easily become the base case."