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Expand chart
Data: Deutsche Bank; Chart: Axios Visuals

Data has consistently shown that trade between the U.S. and China is slowing down significantly, so much so that Mexico recently supplanted China (and Canada) as the top U.S. trading partner.

The bottom line: Deutsche Bank Securities chief economist Torsten Slok points out that the U.S. has clearly shifted one-to-one its imports away from China and toward the rest of the world.

  • Investors expect things to work themselves out, but economists and market analysts at major banks are starting to worry more publicly that the trade war isn't ending anytime soon.

What they're saying: Analysts at Nomura now say there's a 65% chance the U.S. puts tariffs on all imports from China, and strategists at JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are rewriting expectations as well.

  • "Additional trade-related actions taken over the last several days further raise the risk of additional US tariffs on imports from China and further reduce the chances of a formal agreement at the June G20 meeting," Alec Phillips, a strategist on Goldman Sachs' economic research team, wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.
  • "While there is substantial uncertainty, we believe the odds are slightly greater that further US-China tariff escalation is avoided. That said, this is a close call and without additional signs of progress over the next few weeks, implementation of the next round of tariffs on $300bn of imports from China could easily become the base case."

Go deeper: U.S. firms in China say tariffs are hurting business

Go deeper

NRA files for bankruptcy, says it will reincorporate in Texas

Wayne LaPierre of the National Rifle Association (NRA) speaks during CPAC in 2016. Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

The National Rifle Association said Friday it has filed for voluntary bankruptcy as part of a restructuring plan.

Driving the news: The gun rights group said it would reincorporate in Texas, calling New York, where it is currently registered, a "toxic political environment." Last year, New York Attorney General Letitia James filed a lawsuit to dissolve the NRA, alleging the group committed fraud by diverting roughly $64 million in charitable donations over three years to support reckless spending by its executives.

54 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Biden: "We will manage the hell out of" vaccine distribution

Joe Biden. Photo: Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

President-elect Joe Biden promised to invoke the Defense Production Act to increase vaccine manufacturing, as he outlined a five-point plan to administer 100 million COVID-19 vaccinations in the first months of his presidency.

Why it matters: With the Center for Disease Control and Prevention warning of a more contagious variant of the coronavirus, Biden is trying to establish how he’ll approach the pandemic differently than President Trump.

A new Washington

Photo: Stefani Reynolds/Getty Image

D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser said Friday that the city should expect a "new normal" for security — even after President-elect Biden's inauguration.

The state of play: Inaugurations are usually a point of celebration in D.C., but over 20,000 troops are now patrolling Washington streets in an unprecedented preparation for Biden's swearing-in on Jan. 20.