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Data: Deutsche Bank; Chart: Axios Visuals

Data has consistently shown that trade between the U.S. and China is slowing down significantly, so much so that Mexico recently supplanted China (and Canada) as the top U.S. trading partner.

The bottom line: Deutsche Bank Securities chief economist Torsten Slok points out that the U.S. has clearly shifted one-to-one its imports away from China and toward the rest of the world.

  • Investors expect things to work themselves out, but economists and market analysts at major banks are starting to worry more publicly that the trade war isn't ending anytime soon.

What they're saying: Analysts at Nomura now say there's a 65% chance the U.S. puts tariffs on all imports from China, and strategists at JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are rewriting expectations as well.

  • "Additional trade-related actions taken over the last several days further raise the risk of additional US tariffs on imports from China and further reduce the chances of a formal agreement at the June G20 meeting," Alec Phillips, a strategist on Goldman Sachs' economic research team, wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.
  • "While there is substantial uncertainty, we believe the odds are slightly greater that further US-China tariff escalation is avoided. That said, this is a close call and without additional signs of progress over the next few weeks, implementation of the next round of tariffs on $300bn of imports from China could easily become the base case."

Go deeper: U.S. firms in China say tariffs are hurting business

Go deeper

Updated 46 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Tim Scott says Trump "misspoke" when he told Proud Boys to "stand by"

Photo: Bonnie Cash/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) told reporters on Wednesday that he believes President Trump "misspoke" when he told the far-right "Proud Boys" group to "stand back and stand by" in response to a question about condemning white supremacy at the first presidential debate.

Catch up quick: Moderator Chris Wallace asked Trump on Tuesday, "Are you willing, tonight, to condemn white supremacists and militia groups and to say that they need to stand down?" Trump asked who specifically he should condemn, and then responded, "Proud Boys, stand back and stand by. But I'll tell you what, somebody's got to do something about antifa and the left."

Updated 54 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Commission on Presidential Debates wants changes

Photos: Jim Watson and Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

The Commission on Presidential Debates announced Wednesday that it plans to implement changes to rules for the remaining debates, after Tuesday night's head-to-head between Joe Biden and Donald Trump was practically incoherent for most of the night.

What they are saying: "Last night's debate made clear that additional structure should be added to the format of the remaining debates to ensure a more orderly discussion of the issues," the CPD said in a statement.

Trump says he doesn't know who Proud Boys are after telling them to "stand by"

President Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he doesn't know who the Proud Boys are, after saying at the presidential debate last night that the far-right group should "stand back and stand by" in response to a question asking him to condemn white supremacists.

Why it matters: The comments set off outrage and calls for clarification from a number of Republican senators. After being asked several times on Wednesday whether he will condemn white supremacy, Trump responded, "I have always denounced any form — any form of any of that, you have to denounce. But I also — Joe Biden has to say something about antifa."