Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with the Axios AM and PM newsletters. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to the Axios Closer newsletter for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios Pro Rata

Dive into the world of dealmakers across VC, PE and M&A with Axios Pro Rata. Delivered daily to your inbox by Dan Primack and Kia Kokalitcheva.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with the Axios Sports newsletter. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Des Moines newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Tampa Bay newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Nashville news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Nashville newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Columbus news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Columbus newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Dallas news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Dallas newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Austin news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Austin newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Atlanta news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Atlanta newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Philadelphia news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Philadelphia newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Chicago news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Chicago newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas

Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top DC news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios DC newsletter.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

The United States' trade war with China is likely to last much longer than originally thought — extending well into the second half of next year and perhaps beyond, experts say.

The main reason: Neither side is prepared to appear politically weak at home, and both are ready to absorb economic pain.

Why it matters: The winners of a one-year or longer trade war without resolution are not clear, but here are some of the probable losers:

  • In the U.S.: Farmers, users of steel, and consumers. And in earning calls last week, U.S. retailers "were sounding the alarm" about yet another escalation of tariffs threatened by President Trump, reports Axios' Courtenay Brown.
  • In China: Manufacturers of all types will see business leave to neighbors like Vietnam and Malaysia, experts tell Axios.
  • For both: Economic growth will be slightly less next year, and — depending on other factors such as the psychology of stock and commodities markets — there is a small chance that part or much of the world tips into recession.

The background: Last week, the two sides boosted the tariffs to cover $100 billion in trade between the countries. As early as Sept. 6 — 10 days from now — the U.S. may substantially escalate, levying tariffs on $200 billion in trade, and Beijing is expected to strike back.

The aim: Trump says he is determined to get China to stop hacking U.S. commercial secrets and forcing American companies to disgorge their intellectual property to Chinese rivals.

  • But while that is the intellectual backdrop, politically speaking, neither Trump nor China's Xi Jinping can be seen publicly buckling under to the other.
  • And, for economic reasons, neither feels he has to. The tariffs are unlikely to inflict a killer blow. "No question it will be bad, but not calamitous" for the U.S. or China, says Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Adding to the time clock: On the U.S. side, Trump's most hawkish advisers actually want the talks to go on longer because they smell blood. They think the tariffs threaten the Chinese miracle, and want to wait for the suffering to start biting, report the WSJ's Lingling Wei and Bob Davis.

Most of the China experts who Axios spoke with dispute this thinking. Brad Setser, an expert on China's economy at the Council on Foreign Relations, expects only about a 0.5% hit to Chinese GDP next year should Trump, as he has threatened, escalate to tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods — or half its exports to the U.S.

  • In Alibaba's earnings call Thursday, Joe Tsai, the company's executive vice chairman, underscored this point. He said China's economic strength relies mostly on domestic demand and local investment, not exports. In terms of Alibaba's business, he said, "The world is a big place."

What's next: Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, is forecasting the unfolding of a new Cold War next year between the U.S. and China, built on technology and foreign influence. "By the end of 2019, I suspect the biggest headlines on U.S.-China will be more focused on a changing global power balance than a direct trade war," he tells Axios in an email exchange.

  • But as things now stand, handicapping the conflict, Claude Barfield, a trade expert at the American Enterprise Institute, said that it comes down to one question: "Can the Trump administration hold out against a rising political reaction to negative fallout from tariffs versus Chinese economic imperatives and pressures stemming from a falling currency, capital outflows, and a slowing economy?"

The bottom line: There is an outside chance that the trade war spirals out of control, such as the enactment of "Buy American" procurement rules or China deciding to block U.S. ships in port, Posen said.

Get more stories like this by signing up for Bill Bishop's indispensable Axios China newsletter. 

Go deeper

New York AG alleges "significant evidence" of Trump Organization fraud

Combination images of former President Trump and New York State Attorney General Letitia James. Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Scott Heins/Getty Images

New York's attorney general filed a motion Tuesday seeking to compel former President Trump and his two elder children to appear for sworn testimony in her office's civil investigation into the Trump Organization's financial dealings.

Why it matters: Attorney General Letitia James revealed new details in the court filing and a statement on her office's investigation into the Trump Organization's business practices, including a preliminary finding alleging the company used "fraudulent and misleading asset valuations to obtain economic benefits."

2 hours ago - Technology

Ex-N.Y. Post digital chief files lawsuit alleging sexual harassment

Richard B. Levine) (Photo by Richard Levine/Corbis via Getty Images

Former New York Post editor Michelle Gotthelf is suing her former employer, its parent company News Corp. and two editors, alleging she was reprimanded after complaining to senior executives that she was sexually harassed by retired N.Y. Post editor-in-chief Col Allan. The N.Y. Post issued a statement denying any wrongdoing.

Why it matters: "I felt that I owed it to myself and I owed it to the news organization and the people who answered to me," Gotthelf, who was a long time editor at the N.Y. Post, told Axios in an interview.

Updated 3 hours ago - Economy & Business

Airlines warn of flight cancellations amid 5G rollout concerns

Emirates SkyCargo airline Boeing 777F aircraft. Photo: Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Emirates and Delta airlines announced Tuesday that the planned rollout of 5G services at certain American airports could affect flights.

Driving the news: AT&T and Verizon announced earlier Tuesday that they would delay this week's scheduled rollout of 5G signals near a limited number of airports due to continued concerns from the aviation industry.

You’ve caught up. Now what?

Sign up for Mike Allen’s daily Axios AM and PM newsletters to get smarter, faster on the news that matters.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!