Nov 27, 2019

Only poll to predict 2017 U.K. election result forecasts huge Boris win

Photo: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party is on pace to win a significant majority in the U.K.'s high-stakes election on Dec. 12, according to a major poll of 100,000 voters conducted by YouGov.

Why it matters: The so-called MRP poll, which takes local factors into account to provide a highly detailed prediction, was the only one to accurately predict that Theresa May would lose her majority in the shock 2017 election. If Johnson does indeed earn a majority of 68 seats, as the poll projects, he would finally be able to pass his Brexit deal and take the U.K. out of the European Union — 3.5 years after the 2016 referendum.

Yes, but: The margins of victory are below 5% in at least 30 seats projected to be carried by the Conservatives. There are also still two weeks left in the election campaign, and as demonstrated by this week's unprecedented intervention against the Labour Party by Britain's chief rabbi, anything can happen.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

U.K. election: Key poll shows shrinking lead for Boris Johnson

Photo: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party is projected to win a majority of 28 seats in Thursday's high-stakes election, down from a 68-seat majority forecast by the same poll in late November.

Why it matters: YouGov's MRP poll of 100,000 voters was the only one to accurately predict that Theresa May would lose her majority in the shock 2017 election. With just two days left in what's been a brutal election campaign, the opposition Labour and Liberal Democrat parties will be doing everything they can to block Johnson from earning a majority and passing his Brexit deal through Parliament.

Go deeper: Johnson on track for a pro-Brexit victory after ugly election campaign

Keep ReadingArrowDec 10, 2019

Why Trump cares about this week's U.K. elections

Trump and Johnson at the NATO summit in London this month. Photo: Steve Parsons-WPA Pool/Getty Images

President Trump will be watching another political contest this week: The U.K.'s Dec. 12 general election will decide what happens to Brexit and if Prime Minister Boris Johnson — aka "Britain Trump" — remains in charge.

Why it matters: If Johnson's Conservatives win the majority in Parliament, Brexit clears the way for the bilateral U.S.-U.K. trade relationship that Trump favors over negotiating with the European Union.

Go deeperArrowDec 8, 2019

U.K. election: Polls put Boris Johnson on track for a pro-Brexit victory

Johnson today on the campaign trail. Photo: Ben Stansall - WPA Pool/Getty Images

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson appears to be steaming toward the parliamentary majority he desperately desires to pass his Brexit deal and end the gridlock in Westminster.

Why it matters: Thursday’s vote is the culmination of three years of intense efforts to deliver Brexit, and to block it. The rocky road Johnson has plodded along since replacing Theresa May in July would become much smoother with a resounding electoral mandate.

Go deeperArrowDec 10, 2019