Trump's day of reckoning ... The one thing that could dramatically diminish President Trump’s chances of avoiding impeachment and chalking up legislative wins is Democrats winning the House.
- And, thanks to series of recent developments, Trump knows this no longer just seems plausible, but probable.
- Hill sources tell us that a House Democratic takeover is now likely.
- One strategist close to Republican leaders believes that a loss of the House is "baked in," and said top Republicans don't see a way to avoid it.
- It would take a flip of 24 seats for Dems to take over. The average loss for the president's party in his first midterm is about 32 seats, and we're hearing forecasts of 40+ losses.
You can’t predict outcomes this far out, but these hard facts scare the hell out of Republicans:
- Eight House GOP chairs have retired: You don’t climb to the top of power in Congress and leave unless you feel confident your reign will soon end. (Another factor: Chairmanships are term-limited from a Gingrich-era reform.)
- Record retirements for GOP: Already, 29 GOP seats are open, a pace far exceeding the past two elections that saw power change hands.
- Democrats outperformed their norms in turnout, and in total votes, in all seven 2017 elections. This is a clear indicator of energy.
- Record number of Democratic women voting and considering running for office. This, more than anything, is a reaction to Trump and the #MeToo movement.
- In polls, voters prefer Democrats for Congress by a 10-point margin. There is no way to spin this: +10 is terrible in a 50/50 nation.
Be smart: Republicans typically hold a built-in advantage in House elections in modern politics. The reason: a combo of congressional districts designed for a GOP edge + the fact that old, white voters outperform in off-year elections because they actually vote. But Democratic momentum looks like it could drench the map.
The takeaway: With a Democratic House, Trump faces not only a high risk of impeachment proceedings, but hostile chairs with subpoena power who can tie up the administration with hearings and document requests.
Get more stories like this by signing up for Axios newsletters