Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

President Trump hardly invented labor politics. But experts and leaders of both major political parties say his domestic legacy may be his intuition that the worker's time as a potent and unifying national force has returned.

Why it matters: Even after Trump is gone, political observers tell Axios, successful candidates of both parties will have to be seen to be seriously addressing the plight of workers, including underemployment, stuck wages and retraining.

The big picture: Democrats say that, going back to FDR, they've championed pro-worker policies like strengthening unions. But Trump, as a Republican, has managed to steal their thunder, reaching out to large swaths of the working class while championing traditionally conservative measures like reduced taxes and rolled-back regulations.

The bottom line, via Darrell West of the Brookings Institution, is that Democrats must get used to sharing workers with Republicans:

  • "We could end up in a future of Trumpism on steroids, because were likely to see an increase in economic anxiety, and that’s likely to spawn populist politicians on both sides of the aisle."
  • "As entry-level people lose jobs to robots and artificial intelligence, it’s going to highlight the challenges facing workers and it’s going to raise fundamental questions of how do we respond — how do the individuals left behind get income, health care and retirement support?”
  • Both parties are going to be “talking about and taking action that benefits the middle class. ... Figuring out how to help those people [is] the big political question of the day."

West goes on: When it comes to winning elections, “the individuals who are going to be left behind are going to be absolutely crucial, because they are located in key geographic areas. It’s the midwestern Rust Belt that’s going to bear the brunt of this, and those people are going to be the kingmakers in the next presidential election."

The rest of Trump's program is much more problematic: The post-Trump GOP is likely to jettison his approach to trade, immigration, Medicare and Social Security, officials of both parties tell Axios. As for Democrats, they are most likely to try to simply erase Trump from their minds.

What is going to happen: The parties will have vastly different approaches to workers.

Republicans will apply their traditional conservative mental framework, said Alex Conant, a former aide to Sen. Marco Rubio. That could include:

  • Letting people use federal loans for non-traditional learning
  • Transforming the earned-income tax credit "so that it becomes a low-income wage subsidy."
  • The House Ways and Means Committee today marked up a bill reforming the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program with the goal of putting more people to work.

The Democrats have already gotten started, focusing on more government-focused policies:

  • At a conference last week, the liberal Center for American Progress proposed a massive public infrastructure project and a guaranteed jobs program for distressed areas. (Go deeper)
  • Democrats yesterday released the latest installment of their Better Deal plan, which would raise teacher pay and improve school infrastructure.

Go deeper

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
1 hour ago - Economy & Business

Wall Street fears meltdown over election and Supreme Court

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and President Trump's vow to name her replacement to the Supreme Court before November's election are amplifying Wall Street's worries about major volatility and market losses ahead of and even after the election.

The big picture: The 2020 election is the most expensive event risk on record, per Bloomberg — with insurance bets on implied volatility six times their normal level, according to JPMorgan analysts. And it could take days or even weeks to count the record number of mail-in ballots and declare a winner.

Election clues county by county

Ipsos and the University of Virginia's Center for Politics are out with an interactive U.S. map that goes down to the county level to track changes in public sentiment that could decide the presidential election.

How it works: The 2020 Political Atlas tracks President Trump's approval ratings, interest around the coronavirus, what's dominating social media and other measures, with polling updated daily — enhancing UVA's "Crystal Ball."

Updated 4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 31,605,656 — Total deaths: 970,934 Total recoveries: 21,747,491Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 6,897,432 — Total deaths: 200,814 — Total recoveries: 2,646,959 — Total tests: 96,612,436Map.
  3. Health: The U.S. reaches 200,000 coronavirus deaths — The CDC's crumbling reputation — America turns against coronavirus vaccine.
  4. Politics: Elected officials are failing us on much-needed stimulus.
  5. Business: Two-thirds of business leaders think pandemic will lead to permanent changes — Fed chair warns economy will feel the weight of expired stimulus.
  6. Sports: NFL fines maskless coaches.

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