The other side: The Chinese side acknowledged the invitation but has not yet agreed, and between Trump's decision to move forward on the next round of tariffs and a Thursday tweet, I doubt they will accept.

Trump may have already decreased the likelihood Liu will return to D.C. by tweeting on Thursday:

My thought bubble: It's going to take a lot of backchannel reassurances and promises to get Liu back to D.C. The Chinese understand that there's disagreement among Trump's top advisers and Liu has been humiliated on two recent trips to D.C.

• Liu did not get even a handshake with Trump when he came to D.C. in early March.
• And, in May he thought he had reached a deal to suspend the trade war, only to have Trump reject it in a tweet.

The bottom line: That "reversal-by-tweet" methodology also shredded any remaining credibility Mnuchin had in Beijing, so unless the Chinese are hearing directly from Trump or other top members of his inner circle, they are going to be very wary.

Go deeper:

• The coming yearlong U.S. trade war with China (Axios)
• Talking Won't End Trump's Growing China Trade War Any Time Soon (Bloomberg)
• As trade war escalates, China intensifies role of state-owned enterprises (South China Morning Post)