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Photo: Fabrice Coffrini / AFP / Getty Images

President Trump's aides say to expect a more bipartisan and collaborative tone in tomorrow's State of the Union Address — in contrast to his own record.

The partisan fights, like Obamacare and tax cuts, are behind. Now everything requires cooperation and agreement.
— A Trump source
  • Reality check: Trump rarely even flicks at real cooperation in big negotiations. 
  • Trump source: "Time to appear as commander-in-chief and leader of the whole nation. So expect calls to patriotism and national security and national greatness."
  • Reality check #2: Trump has offended almost every group in American politics other than straight, white, Trump-supporting men. 

Trump hasn’t changed, and won’t. But following his unlikely triumph in Davos, and looking ahead to tomorrow’s address, we see a clear pattern: For big speeches, he tends to stick to the prompter and is less divisive than usual, and basks in the ensuing reviews.

  • We saw it in his first address to Congress, just over a month after the inauguration, which fed internal hopes that some semblance of normalcy might lie ahead.
  • It didn’t, of course. But for a president who loves praise, it was a cue for how to get it.
  • So we saw a well-behaved Davos man. And aides are previewing a State of the Union that’s more classic conservative than populist brimstone — although laced with plenty of boasting.

Trump can yell at the world at his campaign rallies, then use his inside voice for big moments like tomorrow:

  • Don’t look for any new policy in this speech. Instead, expect key moments when, drawing on one of Ronald Reagan’s most effective plays, Trump brings in the life experience of a gallery guest — a family affected by opioid addiction, or a mother whose daughter was killed by MS-13 gang members.
  • Swan reminded us in his Sneak Peek newsletter yesterday that the most emotional part of Trump's speech to Congress last year was when he spoke directly to the widow of a fallen Navy SEAL. Look for more of those moments.

For all Trump's triumphalism, the speech comes against a discouraging backdrop that has kept a pall on morale among many in the administration:

  • Robert Mueller is sending ominous signals.
  • Democrats are likely to take over the House, with resulting investigations and torment for the West Wing.
  • An ambitious legislative achievement is unlikely this year. Tomorrow’s speech will tout Trump's infrastructure plans. But even close allies see no path to a big win.
  • The White House faces daunting negotiations on an immigration package that includes both a “Dreamer” solution and a plausible wall.

Be smart: Trump creates his own reality. (The N.Y Times’ Maggie Haberman has said it’s as if he has a magic Crayon to draw the world as he wishes). And his current reality is dominated by praise for his tax cut, and a peppy stock market that has become his new political poll.

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Go deeper

Updated 21 mins ago - Health

California surpasses 50,000 COVID-19 deaths

A man prepares a funeral arrangement in in Los Angeles, California, Feb. 12. Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images

California's death toll from COVID-19 surpassed 50,000 on Wednesday, per Johns Hopkins data.

The big picture: It's the first state to record more than 50,000 deaths from the coronavirus.

2 hours ago - Technology

Facebook bans Myanmar military

A protester holds a placard with a three-finger salute in front of a military tank parked aside the street in front of the Central Bank building during a demonstration in Yangon, Myanmar. Photo by Aung Kyaw Htet/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Facebook said on Wednesday it would ban the rest of the Myanmar military from its platform.

The big picture: It comes some three weeks after the military overthrew the civilian government in a coup and detained leader Aung San Suu Kyi, causing massive protests to erupt throughout the country. Military leaders have been using internet blackouts to try to maintain power in light of the coup.

It's harder to fill the Cabinet

Data: Chamberlain, 2020, "United States of America Cabinet Appointments Dataset" Chart: Will Chase/Axios

It's harder now for presidents to win Senate confirmation for their Cabinet picks, an Axios data analysis of votes for and against nominees found.

Why it matters: It's not just Neera Tanden. The trend is a product of growing polarization, rougher political discourse and slimming Senate majorities, experts say. It means some of the nation's most vital federal agencies go without a leader and the legislative authority that comes with one.