Sign up for our daily briefing
Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.
Stay on top of the latest market trends
Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.
Sports news worthy of your time
Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.
Tech news worthy of your time
Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.
Get the inside stories
Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver
Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines
Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities
Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay
Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei speaks in Tehran in October 2017. Photo: Iranian Leader's Press Office - Handout / Anadolu Agency / Getty Images
If President Trump walks away from the Iran nuclear deal, after again calling on Congress to unilaterally "correct" it during his State of the Union address, it would be the third major international agreement he has ditched.
With Europe, Russia, China and Iran unwilling to renegotiate, such a move would set the stage for withdrawal. But unlike the Trans Pacific Partnership and Paris Climate Agreement, where other parties moved on without the U.S., blowing up the Iran deal would have serious repercussions.
Nuclear sanctions “snap back,” setting up no-win trade disputes with countries and companies that continue to do business in Iran. Iran would then not only continue to test missiles and pursue its interests in places like Syria, but also resume the very nuclear activity the agreement actually stopped.
But none of this is necessary, since Trump’s Iran policy is working.
Even with the nuclear deal intact, the Trump administration has imposed additional sanctions against entities linked to Iran’s missile program and support of terrorist organizations.
The recent public protests across Iran over its dismal economic outlook and ensuing crackdown provide the administration a significant opportunity to discourage further international investment in Iran, potentially widening the wedge between the Iranian government and its people the protests revealed.
Blowing up the nuclear deal is a lose-lose-lose proposition. It undermines the U.S. relationship with key allies and makes Russia and China appear to be the more responsible international actors. And it gives the Ayatollah a gift-wrapped opportunity to point to yet another American conspiracy and shift the blame for Iran's troubles to the Great Satan.
The bottom line: In Trump’s world, when policy and politics collide, politics prevails. Regardless of the global consequences, Trump may well terminate the Iran deal just because he said he would. He sees this as clarity. To the rest of the world, it's more chaos.
P.J. Crowley is a former Assistant Secretary of State and author of "Red Line: American Foreign Policy in a Time of Fractured Politics and Failing States."