President Trump got his triumphant 4% economic growth moment today, and he threw together a surprise speech to celebrate on the White House's south lawn.
The big picture: This is the best quarterly growth since 2014. Trump claims we're on track for 3% this year, and previously promised rates that are even higher (and rather unlikely). Former president Barack Obama enjoyed four quarters of 4%, but his highest year topped out at 2.9%.
The good from the report:
Americans are saving more than we thought: "The data show the average savings rate at [7%] between 2013 and 2017, up from the previous figure of [5%]." — FT's Kadhim Shubber
Consumer spending is up: "Larger paychecks, pushed up in part by tax cuts and the tightening labor market that’s forcing employers to offer heftier pay, are encouraging spending." — WSJ
And the not-so-good:
"One-time factors": Several areas of major growth in the report were in soybeans, with farmers rushing to sell before tariffs, and oil and gas investment, which is dependent on unstable prices. — AP's Christopher Rugaber
Rising borrowing costs because of Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes.
True, if the economy doesn't stumble in Q4: “We are now on track to hit an average annual GDP of over 3%..."
Possibly, but not a lock: “We are on track to hit the highest annual average growth rate in over 13 years.”
Unlikely: “I will say this right now, and I will say this strongly, as the trade deals come in one by one, we’re going to go a lot higher than these numbers."
The bottom line: "The economy’s annualized growth of 4.1% in the second quarter is unlikely to be repeated soon," the WSJ's Greg Ip notes.
"Yet the underlying details are still impressive, pointing to an economic expansion that has picked up vigor and still has plenty of room to run."
