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Expand chart
Data: Survey Monkey online poll conducted Sept. 28–30, 2018 among 2,291 U.S. adults. Total margin of error is ±3.0 percentage points. Modeled error estimates: African-American women ±9.0, age 18 to 34 ±6, suburban white women ±6.5, “Never Hillary” Independent voters ±11.0, Rural voters ±5.5. Poll methodology; Chart: Harry Stevens/Axios

A narrow majority of Americans think President Trump's tariffs against China have been bad for jobs, and his overall trade policies are unpopular by a nearly identical margin, according to a new Axios/SurveyMonkey poll.

Why it matters: Trump has a chance to improve his approval numbers now that he's reached a new trade agreement with Canada and Mexico to replace NAFTA. But this poll, taken before the agreement was announced, shows how much ground he has to make up due to the unpopularity of the tariffs.

By the numbers:

  • By a margin of 53% to 42%, Americans think the trade dispute with China has been bad for jobs rather than good for jobs. That's almost an exact match with his overall trade numbers: 53% disapprove, 44% approve.
  • The tariffs are unpopular with four of the five voter subgroups Axios is tracking in the run-up to the midterm elections. Rural voters are the only group that believes the tariffs are good for jobs.
  • Those who think tariffs are bad for jobs think the trade fight with China is getting worse (69%), while those who think the tariffs are good for jobs think the dispute is staying about the same (59%) or getting better (26%).

What to watch: The 18% of Americans who approve of Trump but think the trade dispute is getting worse. (There's almost no movement in the other direction — only 1% of people who disapprove of Trump think the dispute is getting better.)

The bottom line: Trump's overall approval ratings may get better if Americans decide the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement is a good deal. But the China tariffs are unpopular enough that those who disapprove aren't likely to forget about them.

Methodology: This analysis is based on SurveyMonkey online surveys conducted Sept. 28-30 among 2,291 adults in the United States. The modeled error estimate  for the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Sample sizes and modeled error estimates for the subgroups are as follows:

African-American Women (n=147 +/- 9), Millennials Age 18 - 34  (n=395, +/- 6), White Suburban Women  (n=459 , +/- 6.5), NeverHillary/Independent voters  (n= 133, +/- 11), Rural  (n= 585, +/- 5.5). Respondents for this survey were selected from the more than 2 million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. More information about our methodologyhere. Crosstabs available here.

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Pope Francis was on Sunday visiting areas of northern Iraq once held by Islamic State militants.

Why it matters: This is the first-ever papal trip to Iraq. The purpose of Francis' four-day visit is largely intended to reassure the country's Christian minority, who were violently persecuted by ISIS, which controlled the region from 2014-2017.

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The office of New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) was on Saturday facing fresh accusations of misconduct against his staff, including further allegations of inappropriate behavior against two more women. His office denies the claims.

Driving the news: The Washington Post reported Cuomo allegedly embraced an aide when he led the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and that two male staffers who worked for him in the governor's office accused him of routinely berating them "with explicit language."

In photos: Protesters rally for George Floyd ahead of Derek Chauvin's trial

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Dozens of protesters were rallying outside the Minnesota governor's mansion in St Paul Saturday, urging justice for George Floyd ahead of former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin's trial over the 46-year-old's death.

The big picture: Chauvin faces charges for second-degree murder and manslaughter over Floyd's death last May, which ignited massive nationwide and global protests against racism and for police reform. His trial is due to start this Monday, with jury selection procedures.