Expand chart
Data: Survey Monkey online poll conducted Sept. 28–30, 2018 among 2,291 U.S. adults. Total margin of error is ±3.0 percentage points. Modeled error estimates: African-American women ±9.0, age 18 to 34 ±6, suburban white women ±6.5, “Never Hillary” Independent voters ±11.0, Rural voters ±5.5. Poll methodology; Chart: Harry Stevens/Axios

A narrow majority of Americans think President Trump's tariffs against China have been bad for jobs, and his overall trade policies are unpopular by a nearly identical margin, according to a new Axios/SurveyMonkey poll.

Why it matters: Trump has a chance to improve his approval numbers now that he's reached a new trade agreement with Canada and Mexico to replace NAFTA. But this poll, taken before the agreement was announced, shows how much ground he has to make up due to the unpopularity of the tariffs.

By the numbers:

  • By a margin of 53% to 42%, Americans think the trade dispute with China has been bad for jobs rather than good for jobs. That's almost an exact match with his overall trade numbers: 53% disapprove, 44% approve.
  • The tariffs are unpopular with four of the five voter subgroups Axios is tracking in the run-up to the midterm elections. Rural voters are the only group that believes the tariffs are good for jobs.
  • Those who think tariffs are bad for jobs think the trade fight with China is getting worse (69%), while those who think the tariffs are good for jobs think the dispute is staying about the same (59%) or getting better (26%).

What to watch: The 18% of Americans who approve of Trump but think the trade dispute is getting worse. (There's almost no movement in the other direction — only 1% of people who disapprove of Trump think the dispute is getting better.)

The bottom line: Trump's overall approval ratings may get better if Americans decide the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement is a good deal. But the China tariffs are unpopular enough that those who disapprove aren't likely to forget about them.

Methodology: This analysis is based on SurveyMonkey online surveys conducted Sept. 28-30 among 2,291 adults in the United States. The modeled error estimate  for the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Sample sizes and modeled error estimates for the subgroups are as follows:

African-American Women (n=147 +/- 9), Millennials Age 18 - 34  (n=395, +/- 6), White Suburban Women  (n=459 , +/- 6.5), NeverHillary/Independent voters  (n= 133, +/- 11), Rural  (n= 585, +/- 5.5). Respondents for this survey were selected from the more than 2 million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. More information about our methodologyhere. Crosstabs available here.

Go deeper

1 min ago - World

Lebanon's prime minister resigns in wake of deadly explosion

Protests in Beirut. Photo: Maxim Grigoryev/TASS via Getty

Lebanon's prime minister and cabinet have resigned amid massive protests in the aftermath of a deadly explosion in Beirut that killed more than 160 people, injured 6,000 and left roughly 250,000 homeless.

Why it matters: Protesters blame the incompetence of the ruling elite — widely viewed as corrupt — for the disaster. The unstable and deeply distrusted government will remain in place in a caretaker capacity until a new prime minister is selected.

Updated 30 mins ago - World

Protests erupt in Belarus after "Europe's last dictator" claims election win

Protesters and riot police clash in Minsk, Belarus, on Sunday during a demonstration against President Alexander Lukashenko's claim of a landslide victory. Photo: Misha Friedman/Getty Images)

Riot police clashed with protesters in Belarus overnight after a government exit poll predicted Sunday President Aleksander Lukashenko, an authoritarian who has ruled the Eastern European country since 1994, had overwhelmingly defeated a pro-democracy opposition candidate.

Why it matters: It's a precarious moment for the former Soviet republic, where decades of repression and a complete disregard for the coronavirus pandemic threaten to topple "Europe's last dictator." Rights groups said at least one protester was killed and dozens more wounded in a "police crackdown," per AP.

Updated 43 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 11 a.m. ET: 19,909,062 — Total deaths: 732,128 — Total recoveries — 12,138,271Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 11 a.m. ET: 5,053,123 — Total deaths: 163,047 — Total recoveries: 1,656,864 — Total tests: 61,792,571Map.
  3. Business: Richer Americans are more comfortable eating out.
  4. Public health: How America can do smarter testing.
  5. Sports: The cost of kids losing gym class — College football is on the brink.
  6. 🎧 Podcast: Indoor air is the next hotspot.