Photos: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images; Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

Quarterly polling by Republican-founded Firehouse Strategies and 0ptimus finds that President Trump’s lead dropped considerably against both Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders since December in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Why it matters: Although Trump leads when matched against Biden or Sanders, his leads against Biden are within the margin of error in each state, signaling a tight contest in those key states if the former vice president wins the nomination.

Graphic: Firehouse Strategies
  • Of note: In each of the three states, Trump has wider leads in head-to-head matchups against Sanders than against Biden.

Methodology: This survey was conducted on March 5 through 7 and interviewed a total of 1,582 likely 2020 general election voters in Wisconsin (502), Michigan (550), and Pennsylvania (533) via live landline. Margins of error vary by question and segment but is generally ± 4.7% in WI, ± 4.6% in MI, and ± 5.0% in PA for the topline results.

Go deeper: Why Trump is very beatable

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Updated 7 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 7 p.m. ET: 12,859,834 — Total deaths: 567,123 — Total recoveries — 7,062,085Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 7 p.m. ET: 3,297,501— Total deaths: 135,155 — Total recoveries: 1,006,326 — Total tested: 40,282,176Map.
  3. States: Florida smashes single-day record for new coronavirus cases with over 15,000 — NYC reports zero coronavirus deaths for first time since pandemic hit.
  4. Public health: Ex-FDA chief projects "apex" of South's coronavirus curve in 2-3 weeks — Coronavirus testing czar: Lockdowns in hotspots "should be on the table"
  5. Education: Betsy DeVos says schools that don't reopen shouldn't get federal funds — Pelosi accuses Trump of "messing with the health of our children."

Scoop: How the White House is trying to trap leakers

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

President Trump's chief of staff, Mark Meadows, has told several White House staffers he's fed specific nuggets of information to suspected leakers to see if they pass them on to reporters — a trap that would confirm his suspicions. "Meadows told me he was doing that," said one former White House official. "I don't know if it ever worked."

Why it matters: This hunt for leakers has put some White House staffers on edge, with multiple officials telling Axios that Meadows has been unusually vocal about his tactics. So far, he's caught only one person, for a minor leak.

11 GOP congressional nominees support QAnon conspiracy

Lauren Boebert posing in her restaurant in Rifle, Colorado, on April 24. Photo: Emily Kask/AFP

At least 11 Republican congressional nominees have publicly supported or defended the QAnon conspiracy theory movement or some of its tenets — and more aligned with the movement may still find a way onto ballots this year.

Why it matters: Their progress shows how a fringe online forum built on unsubstantiated claims and flagged as a threat by the FBI is seeking a foothold in the U.S. political mainstream.