Sign up for our daily briefing
Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.
Catch up on the day's biggest business stories
Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter
Stay on top of the latest market trends
Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.
Sports news worthy of your time
Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.
Tech news worthy of your time
Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.
Get the inside stories
Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver
Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines
Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities
Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay
Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte
Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas
Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters
Trump at a rally in Arizona. Ralph Freso/Getty Images
With just 17 days left until the election, President Trump is going all in on immigration as a way to help Republicans keep the House. “Democrats want to throw your borders wide open to deadly drugs and endless gangs,” he said at an Arizona rally last night.
Why it matters: Republicans have a 16% chance of keeping the House, according to FiveThirtyEight. That certainly worries Trump — who's already said it won't be his fault if that happens — so he's making the 2018 midterms all about the base.
Be smart: Immigration in 2018 isn't about policy; it's about both sides making a cultural argument to turn out their base voters. Democrats call to abolish ICE while Republicans claim Democrats want open borders and support MS-13 gangs.
Democrats worry immigration is an emotional and powerful issue that drives Republican voters to the polls, especially with stories like the undocumented immigrant accused of killing University of Iowa student Mollie Tibbetts.
The big picture: The GOP hasn't been able to effectively talk about health care (after failing to repeal the Affordable Care Act) and their tax law isn't polling well around the country. But immigration and stoking fear about Mexican immigrants propelled Trump to the White House in 2016, so he's forcing the GOP back into that conversation.
Think back to October 2016. That's when Trump introduced the phrase "bad hombres," vowing to deport all of them from the U.S.
- He repeated the conspiracy theory that border patrol agents were speeding up immigrants' applications — even those with a criminal record — "so they can go and vote" in our 2016 presidential election.
- Exit polls from that election showed Trump crushed Hillary Clinton among voters who ranked immigration as the most important issue, winning them by 31 percentage points. And 73% of Trump voters ranked immigration as "very high importance" to them and their 2016 vote.
The bottom line: As a Republican national strategist told me this week, "The GOP closing argument will be all about immigration and stopping Democrats from controlling Congress."
Go deeper: Caravan of Honduran immigrants advances into Mexico