Beto O'Rourke. Photo: Paul Ratje/AFP/Getty Images

The Cook Political Report just moved the Texas Senate race from "likely" Republican to "lean" Republican — another sign that things are shifting blue ahead of November.

What's happening: President Trump's disapproval rating is at 52% in Texas, and a new poll from the left-leaning Public Policy Polling shows Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke trailing Republican Sen. Ted Cruz by just four points.

Fundraising is a big part of it, too. Cook's Jennifer Duffy writes that O'Rourke had $10.2 million in Q2, compared to Cruz's $4.1 million.

The other side: Duffy writes, "There are some observers who believe that there simply aren’t enough Democratic and Democratic-leaning independents voters to push O’Rourke across the line."

The bottom line: Just because the race has shifted to "lean Republican" doesn't mean it's Democrats' to win. Texas hasn't had a Democratic senator since 1993.

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Ben Geman, author of Generate
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