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The stakes for Taiwan in a U.S.–China trade war

Young women in military uniforms carry Taiwanese flags
Students of a military school wave flags during a ceremony in Taipei. Photo: Mandy Cheng/AFP via Getty Images

As the U.S. and China gear up for a trade war, Taiwan is stuck in the middle — and worried it'll become a bargaining chip.

The bottom line: The U.S. is stoking Beijing’s ire by increasing its engagement with the self-governing island. Things could heat up quickly if the U.S. backs away from the One-China policy, which prevents Washington from recognizing Taiwan’s independence. While he’s unlikely to abandon the policy entirely, President Trump could raise the issue if China won’t give in to his trade demands, according to Richard Bush, a Taiwan expert at Brookings.