Data: SurveyMonkey survey of 3,092 Ohio voters, Sept. 1-25, 2020; Note: COVID-19 was a write-in option; Chart: Axios Visuals

President Trump leads Joe Biden 51%-47% among likely Ohio voters overall — but he holds a whopping 74%-24% lead with those who say a flagging economy and job concerns are their top issue, according to new SurveyMonkey-Tableau data for Axios.

Why it matters: Ohioans are more worried about their jobs than the coronavirus — and that's President Trump's best chance to cling to a narrow lead in this state he won handily in 2016.

Driving the news: Trump and Biden will meet Tuesday night in Cleveland for their first presidential debate, putting a spotlight on this Rust Belt state that's battled declining growth for years.

  • Ohio has 18 electoral votes, making it a state without which he likely cannot win.
  • 49% of all Ohio adults surveyed since June approve of Trump's handling of the presidency, five points higher than the national average.

Details: Jobs and the economy (37%) were the top issue for Ohio voters in September, followed by health care (18%), the environment (9%) and education (5%). Another 3% wrote in COVID-19.

  • Half of Ohioans see coronavirus primarily an economic crisis. Nationally, by contrast, 53% see it first as health crisis and 45% see it as an economic crisis, according to SurveyMonkey chief research officer Jon Cohen.

By the numbers: Non-college educated white voters and white men drive the president's Ohio support, nearly 2-to-1 over Biden, in the SurveyMonkey data.

  • Biden leads with Black, college-educated, young and independent voters — his best chances to close the gap if he can turn these groups out.
  • Black voters prefer Biden over Trump 86% to 12%.
  • College-educated white voters prefer Biden 59% to 40%.
  • Independents give Biden an edge 53% to 43%.
  • Women in Ohio are essentially divided.

Methodology: These data come from a set of SurveyMonkey online polls conducted for Axios and Tableau June 8 – September 25, 2020, among a national sample of 11,616 registered voters in Ohio, including 3,092 likely voters interviewed thus far in September.

  • Respondents were selected from the more than 2 million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. The modeled error estimate for this survey is plus or minus 2.5% percentage points.
  • Data have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and geography using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States age 18 and over.

Go deeper

Poll: 92% of battleground state voters are "extremely motivated to vote"

Voters stand in line at the Metropolitan Multi-Services Center in Houston, Texas, on Oct. 13. Photo: Mark Felix for The Washington Post via Getty Images

91% of likely voters nationally say they are "extremely motivated to vote," including 92% in battleground states Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to a Change Research/CNBC Poll.

Why it matters: The 2020 election could see record-breaking levels of voter turnout. Voters last week cast ballots at nearly five times the rate they did at this point in the 2016 election, per the U.S. Elections Project. Over 39 million ballots have been cast in early voting states as of Wednesday.

Ben Geman, author of Generate
Oct 21, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Poll shows strong backing for Biden's $2 trillion climate plan

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

A new poll of nearly 1,000 likely voters suggests Joe Biden would have political wind at his back on the proposal on climate change if he wins and Democrats take the Senate.

Why it matters: 66% of likely voters support a plan to spend $2 trillion on clean energy and climate efforts, per this New York Times/Siena College poll.

The final debate

Trump and Biden at the first debate. Morry Gash-Pool/Getty Image

Watch for President Trump to address Joe Biden as “the big guy” or “the chairman” at tonight's debate as a way of dramatizing the Hunter Biden emails. Hunter's former business partner Tony Bobulinski is expected to be a Trump debate guest.

The big picture: Trump's advisers universally view the first debate as a catastrophe — evidenced by a sharp plunge in Trump’s public and (more convincingly for them) private polling immediately following the debate.

Get Axios AM in your inbox

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!